The Iowa caucuses were as close as it can get. In the end Hillary won by 2 delegates, 23 to 21. Iowa is one of the most Bernie friendly states in America, playing right to his main demographics. 97% White, almost 50% of Iowa Democrats self-identify as actual Socialists. Yet, Hillary won the state. Now, it is on to NH, Bernie’s next-door neighbor state, which Bernie is poised to win.
But, after that? The race moves to turf that has shown to be strongly Hillary friendly in polls. Nevada, South Carolina. Then Super Tuesday on March 1, 3 weeks from today. 12 states, most notable Texas (222 delegates), Georgia (102 delegates), Virginia (95 delegates), MA (91 delegates), Tennessee (67 delegates), etc. etc. A week later Michigan and Mississippi. IMO March 15 will likely be the end of all pretenses of a Bernie revolution actually happening, as four mega states go to vote, all very unfriendly turf for Bernie: Florida (214 delegates), North Carolina (107 delegates), Illinois (156 delegates), Ohio (143 delegates).
A trio of state polls are showing us the uphill climb Bernie has ahead of him when it comes to states with high POC concentrations, states that strongly dominate Super Tuesday on March 1, and Super Tuesday II on March 15.
UPDATED to include latest Texas poll
TEXAS:
Texas poll (part of March 1 Super Tuesday slate):
TEXAS POLL Hillary 50% Bernie 16%
While Senator Sanders has gained some ground among likely Democratic voters, the poll shows Clinton still holds a commanding lead over her rivals. Clinton was almost 50 points ahead of Sanders in the October poll. Now, her lead is down to 34 points. Clinton still holds the top spot with 50.33% compared to Sanders’ 15.51%.
The crosstabs show that in Texas Hillary does better with Hispanics than she does with AAs, although she is far ahead of Bernie in both POC groups. Hillary beats Bernie strongly in all Democratic ideological groups, gender and age groups.
GEORGIA:
Georgia poll (part of March 1 Super Tuesday slate):
Clinton, Trump lead among Georgia voters in new exclusive Channel 2 presidential poll
An exclusive Channel 2 Action News poll shows Hillary Clinton is currently far ahead of her opponent, Bernie Sanders, in Georgia.
The poll by Landmark/RosettaStone polled 600 voters, asking them who they preferred for the Democratic presidential ticket.
In total, 63.3 percent of voters chose Clinton, 21.5 percent of voters chose Sanders and 15.2 percent of voters were undecided.
A lead in Georgia of 42% for Hillary 3 weeks before Georgia voters go to the polls. This poll was conducted entirely after the Iowa caucus.
Channel 2 political reporter Lori Geary broke down the numbers Friday and showed young democratic voters in Georgia are not flocking to Sanders as they were in other states, like Iowa and New Hampshire.
Clinton far and away locks up the African-American vote, according to the poll. That could help give her a huge lead in Georgia.
|
|
|
Age |
|
|
Race |
|
|
Total: 600 |
18-39 (142) |
40-64 (338) |
65 or 0ver |
White |
African-American |
Other |
Hillary Clinton |
63.3 % |
61.0 % |
61.2 % |
72.5 % |
48.4 % |
76.7 % |
40.7 % |
Bernie Sanders |
21.5 % |
13.5 % |
27.2 % |
14.2 % |
33.1 % |
11.0 % |
40.7 % |
Undecided |
15.2 % |
25.5 % |
11.6 % |
13.3 % |
18.5 % |
12.3 % |
18.6 %
|
Young voters 18 to 39 are strongly with Hillary, 61% to 13.5%. Bernie does a little better in the 40 to 64 age group. African-Americans, a very dominant vote force in Georgia Democratic primaries, are behind Hillary 77% to 11%. Hillary also has a strong lead among White Democrats in Georgia.
The exclusive poll shows of 600 likely Georgia Democratic voters, 77 percent of the African-American vote goes to Clinton and just 11 percent to Sanders.
“She has a long commitment to civil rights that has not been given lip service,” Abrams said.
“African-Americans will be about 55 percent or more of the Democratic primary voters,” said Emory Political Science Professor Merle Black.
|
Gender |
|
Metro Atlanta |
|
|
Male (250) |
Female (350) |
Inside (320) |
Outside (280) |
Hillary Clinton |
56.8 % |
68.0 % |
58.4 % |
69.2 % |
Bernie Sanders |
26.4 % |
18.8 % |
24.7 % |
17.6 % |
Undecided |
16.8 % |
14.0 % |
16.9 % |
13.2 %
|
Hillary crushes Bernie with both male and female Georgians, but there is still a gender gap, as Hillary has 68% of female voters vs. only 19% for Bernie.
“He would have to have a political earthquake or a series of earthquakes for him to be truly competitive in Georgia,” Black said.
What Georgia is showing us is that states with high African-American quotients are going to be very difficult for Bernie to compete in. And, Georgia votes in just 3 weeks. What this Georgia poll shows is that apparently Iowa changed nothing when it comes to states that strongly dominate Super Tuesday and Super Tuesday II as well as South Carolina.
MICHIGAN:
Yesterday’s Michigan poll is another reminder of Hillary’s strength in states that “look like America.” Michigan goes to vote on March 8, in 4 weeks. That poll was discussed in this excellent diary from motorized:
New Michigan poll is bad news for Bernie Sanders
In a poll from political newsletter Inside Michigan Politics and polling firm Target Insyght, Clinton leads Sanders 62 percent to 30 percent with 7 percent of voters undecided. The poll automatically dialed 400 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters from Feb. 2 through Feb. 4, and the margin of error is 5 percent.
This poll was confirmed by a Mitchell Research poll just a week prior that had this finding:
Mitchell Research/WJBK-TV |
Jan. 25 |
Clinton, 61%; Bernie Sanders, 34%; Martin O'Malley, 4% |
Mitchell Research/WJBK-TV
|
Sept. 18 |
Clinton, 35%; Joe Biden, 28%; Sanders, 22%
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Note that Mitchell Research had a much closer race back in September (when Biden was still contemplating) but that they are now showing a large Hillary lead as of Jan. 25. And, Mitchell’s findings are very similar to this latest Michigan poll from today, 62% to 30%.
Important to note that Michigan was one of the handful of states where unannounced Biden actually outpolled a long announced Bernie. Michigan Democrats are a lot more moderate than, say, Iowa Democrats, which is why Biden was more popular than Bernie, even unannounced.
CONCLUSION:
As we can see in the Georgia poll conducted on February 4th, Hillary has strongly solidified her lead with African-Americans, women and people of all ages in this very “Super Tuesday” typical state. We still need to see other state polls out of South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Tennessee, Florida, North Carolina, to confirm these early post-Iowa findings in crucial states that vote within the next 4 weeks and come with delegate counts that dwarf both Iowa and New Hampshire, but from the looks of these polls, and with only 3 weeks to go, things are looking very good for Hillary to put a lot of distance between herself and Bernie on Super Tuesday in the delegate count and then earn a decisive margin by March 15 (Super Tuesday II).