UPDATED:
1) I forgot about Gerald Ford, a commenter reminded me so I added him.
2) The same commenter also noted that every President who did not have a primary in his party was re-elected. So, that would include Reagan, Clinton, and — Obama!
ORIGINAL DIARY FOLLOWS:
Back in 2012, Bernie Sanders said that it would be a “good idea” if President Obama were primaried.
Full quote is below. There’s audio at this link as well.
http://thinkprogress.org/special/2011/07/22/277124/bernie-sanders-primary-obama/
Recently, President Obama has faced fire from many in his own base for endorsing unpopular proposals that would include regressive cuts to Social Security in order to win a hike in the debt ceiling.
Today, while appearing on Thom Hartmann’s radio show, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) — who, while being an independent, caucuses with the Democrats — said that one way progressives can make sure Obama does not enact huge cuts to major social programs is to run a primary challenger against him. Sanders told a listener who called in to protest a debt ceiling deal that cuts Social Security that such a challenge would be a “good idea”:
SANDERS: Brian, believe me, I wish I had the answer to your question. Let me just suggest this. I think there are millions of Americans who are deeply disappointed in the president; who believe that, with regard to Social Security and a number of other issues, he said one thing as a candidate and is doing something very much else as a president; who cannot believe how weak he has been, for whatever reason, in negotiating with Republicans and there’s deep sdisappointment. So my suggestion is, I think one of the reasons the president has been able to move so far to the right is that there is no primary opposition to him and I think it would do this country a good deal of service if people started thinking about candidates out there to begin contrasting what is a progressive agenda as opposed to what Obama is doing. […] So I would say to Ryan [sic] discouragement is not an option. I think it would be a good idea if President Obama faced some primary opposition.
A little context — here’s the record of incumbent Presidents who have faced significant primary challenges in the past few decades:
Lyndon Johnson (Eugene McCarthy) — decided not to run for re-election
Gerald Ford (Ronald Reagan) — Lost to Jimmy Carter
Jimmy Carter (Ted Kennedy) — Lost to Ronald Reagan
George H.W. Bush (Pat Buchanan) — Lost to Bill Clinton
Which presidents have faced a significant primary challenge in their party but still got re-elected?
None in modern American history. Not one!
And — Every President who did not have a primary in his party was re-elected. So, that would include Reagan, Clinton, and — Obama!
Simple rule —
Presidents who are primaried — lose.
Presidents who are not primaried — win.
So, maybe some of you agree with what Sanders said. That’s fine. I have every expectation that these comments will be shared with the voters in South Carolina and other states that have large black populations. President Obama is held in much higher regard by them than he is by many who voted in New Hampshire, and I don’t think this will help win them over to his campaign.
In my opinion, this is one of several factors that will prove to be not very helpful to Sanders and will lead to very different results in a number of the upcoming contests than we saw in New Hampshire. The first test of my theory will be on Feb. 27th in South Carolina. I, for one, am greatly looking forward to it!