NBC/Surveymonkey is out with their newest poll, and it appears that New Hampshire hasn’t given Bernie much of a bounce.
NBC Poll: Clinton maintains national lead after NH loss
In the wake of the first two nominating contests, Hillary Clinton is maintaining her lead over Bernie Sanders nationally in the past week, dropping a single percentage point to 50 percent. Sanders picked up a point to lower the difference to 10 points among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.
-1% on Hillary’s side, +1% on Bernie’s side from their last poll released on January 26. 2% movement from January 26 to today is not much of a bounce at all. It must have been the fact that New Hampshire is Vermont's neighbor state, so the New Hampshire numbers are largely seen as a “favored son" result, not meaningful or indicative of much of anything.
More important, given the upcoming Super Tuesday slate, which is lopsided towards AA participation in the large lineup of primaries, is the fact that Hillary has held and slightly widened her already substantial lead with African-American voters.
Our tracking poll has shown that nationally, white Democratic voters are divided over their choice in candidate, with 44 percent currently supporting Clinton and 47 percent supporting Sanders. Among non-white voters, however, the former Secretary of State has had stronger support than the senator from Vermont.
In this poll, with African-Americans, Hillary now holds a 74% to 23% lead. That is up from NBC’s previous poll (Jan. 26).
And, black Millennials are breaking with their white counterparts.
This week’s poll shows that black millennial voters who are Democratic or lean Democratic support Clinton by a wide margin, 64 percent to 25 percent, roughly mirroring older black voters’ support for her (73 percent to 16 percent among those over 35).
The AA numbers are quite important here, because many of the Super Tuesday states (March 1) have a very high AA participation in the primaries.
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll was conducted online from February 8, 2016 through February 14, 2016 among a national sample of 13,129 adults aged 18 and over, including 11,417 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Results have an error estimate of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points. A full description of our methodology and the poll can be found here.