The more interesting aspects surrounding the 88th annual Academy Awards have not been meaningful debates about the artistic merit of The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road, or the acting talents of Leonardo DiCaprio and Brie Larson. Most of the attention has mostly been concerned with the controversies surrounding the ceremony, which has mainly concerned the #OscarsSoWhite criticism and the lack of ethnic diversity in both the award nominations and within the 6,000 member body which is the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. This has led to protests, boycotts, the creation of alternate award shows, and some reforms. And some actors, directors, and others are attending different events, with Selma’s Ava DuVernay and Creed’s Ryan Coogler attending #JusticeForFlint, to help in the recovery of Flint, Michigan.
Reginald Hudlin and David Hill have taken over for Neil Meron and Craig Zadan in producing the show, and have already made some changes to the nature of the program. In order to get the show moving faster, and also spare the winners being forced off the stage by the orchestra when their speeches go long, nominees will submit, in advance, a list of the people they’d like to thank, and those names will run across the bottom of the screen in a ticker while the winners fill their 45 seconds of acceptance speech.
Chris Rock returns to host the program again. After #OscarsSoWhite hit the media, there was some speculation as to whether Rock would pull out of the broadcast. However, he didn’t and it’s almost a foregone conclusion Rock will use his opening monologue to address the controversy, since he called the Oscars “The White BET Awards” in a tweet after the nominations were announced.
Finally, the original song category is not without controversy either. Three of the five nominees will perform. Lady Gaga will perform Til It Happens to You from The Hunting Ground, Sam Smith will sing Spectre’s Writing’s on the Wall, and The Weeknd was arguably the best thing to come out of Fifty Shades of Grey with Earned It. However, performances of the other two nominated songs, from Youth and Racing Extinction, were excluded. Anohni (née Antony Hegarty), a trans woman, has been recognized for her song Manta Ray. However, the Academy’s exclusion of allowing her to perform, and also adding a note about her gender to the "trivia" page of their website, which they have since removed, has led Anohni to refuse to attend the telecast.
You can see the entire list of nominees by clicking here. But after the jump, a little bit more analysis on the six major categories, with some Las Vegas odds on who will probably win, critics' arguments for who should win.
Here are the nominees for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Actress, and more. Beside each nominee are the Vegas odds for their chance of winning.
► Best Picture:
From 1945 to 2010, the Best Picture winner was the film that received the most votes. When the Academy adjusted the rules for the category to include up to 10 nominees, they also changed the voting procedure from first-past-the-post to an instant run-off, wherein voters rank the films from best to worst. Nominated films must earn either 5 percent of first-place rankings, but it's possible for the film that wins Best Picture to not be the one a majority of voters put atop their ballots, but instead is a consensus pick having the broadest support overall.
- The Revenant — Even Money
- Spotlight — 8-5
- The Big Short — 6-1
- The Martian — 50-1
- Mad Max: Fury Road — 60-1
- Room — 75-1
- Bridge of Spies — 100-1
- Brooklyn — 150-1
From Peter Travers at Rolling Stone:
Should Win: Spotlight
Tom McCarthy's film took a hot topic (the Boston Globe's Pulitzer-winning report on Catholic Church cover-ups of abuse by pedophile priests), executed it with precision and expelled all Hollywood bullshit in the most iconic film about journalism since All the President's Men.
Will Win: The Revenant
The Oscar usually goes to the film with the most nominations. The Revenant has 12; Mad Max: Fury Road got 10. If Spotlight has to go down to any other film, Max would be my choice, though Adam McKay's all-star financial farce, The Big Short, is picking up speed as a spoiler.
Robbed: Todd Haynes' Carol and Danny Boyle and Aaron Sorkin's Steve Jobs join F. Gary Gray's Compton and Ryan Coogler's Creed on my list of most egregious kiss-offs.
► Best Achievement in Directing:
- Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant) — -300
- George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road) — 5-1
- Adam McKay (The Big Short) — 10-1
- Tom McCarthy (Spotlight) — 12-1
- Lenny Abrahamson (Room) — 85-1
The winner of Best Director is usually a portent of Best Picture, since the director of the film that wins best picture almost always wins this award. This year offers the chance for something to happen that hasn’t in a long, long time.
From A.A. Dowd at the A.V. Club:
Prediction: It’s been 66 years since anyone claimed consecutive Best Director Oscars. Will this long history of spreading the wealth work against Alejandro G.Iñárritu, who just won last year for Birdman? Don’t count on it. The Revenant, which has already won the DGA, is exactly the kind of muscular, showy directorial showcase that AMPAS goes wild for. Factor in the well-publicized details of its arduous production, and it’s hard to imagine that the Academy will hold a recent victory against the filmmaker. (It also helps to remember that Oscar pundits probably know and care much more about Oscar history than Oscar voters do.)
Preference: For creating a fully realized world from scratch, for orchestrating one instantly iconic image after another, for reclaiming the lost art of making things going vroom and boom through practical means: For all these reasons and more, George Miller was the director of 2015. It’s really not even close.
Overlooked: Even harder than scoring an Oscar nomination for a big action movie is nabbing one for a small horror film. With It Follows, David Robert Mitchell established himself as a master in the making, manipulating space and perspective to generate white-knuckle fear. In a world (and award season) without genre prejudice, he’d be near the top of the shortlist.
► Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
While not exactly predictive, the SAG awards can give you an indication of which way the wind is blowing for the Academy Awards, since actors make up the largest block of Oscar voters (i.e., around a quarter of all voters). Since 2005, the Best Actor Oscar has matched the SAG Best Actor winner, which this year went to Leonardo DiCaprio.
DiCaprio has an almost minor Susan Lucci-ish relationship with the Oscars, where he’s been nominated many times before for magnificent work, but there’s always been one performance by another actor that critics and the Academy deemed more worthy. However, this year he’s seen as a heavy favorite in the category for a vivid piece of work that was done under harsh conditions.
- Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) -2000
- Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs) 20-1
- Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl) 25-1
- Matt Damon (The Martian) 35-1
- Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) 50-1
From Variety critics Justin Chang, Peter Debruge, and Guy Lodge:
Chang
Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs.” The coronation of Leonardo DiCaprio (who should have won for “The Wolf of Wall Street”) would be inevitable even if he had stronger competition — which is to say, if he were up against Michael B. Jordan’s exceptional work in “Creed,” as opposed to Bryan Cranston’s ham-fisted Dalton Trumbo impersonation or Eddie Redmayne’s simpering, fatally superficial embodiment of gender identity crisis. Effortlessly good as Matt Damon was in “The Martian,” this should be Fassbender’s to lose: Although far from obvious casting as Steve Jobs, he overcame that hurdle and then some with a verbally electric turn that captured this most iconic of American entrepreneurs in all his prickly edges and maddening contradictions — and then every so often let the icy facade drop to reveal a startling glimmer of soul.
Debruge
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl.” Whether it’s Bryan Cranston chomping cigars or Leonardo DiCaprio chewing the scenery, there’s a bit too much acting in this category for my taste. By contrast, I admire how Matt Damon (as “The Martian’s” unrelenting rocket man) and Michael Fassbender (as the equally driven “Steve Jobs”) humanized their larger-than-life roles. To the extent that the craft is about transformation, however, “The Danish Girl” fascinates: In what feels almost like a meta-performance, we watch as Eddie Redmayne’s character, en route to becoming one of the world’s first transgender cases, studies and oh-so-stealthily assimilates the mannerisms of women around him.
Lodge
Matt Damon, “The Martian.” From one of the least formidable lineups in this category’s history — featuring two performances I’d call actively misjudged, one that prioritizes brute labor over soul, and two fine turns that nonetheless don’t approach either actor’s best work — Michael Fassbender’s cool-hothead take on “Steve Jobs” reps the most artful option, though he was more viscerally compelling this year in “Macbeth.” Instead, it’s Damon’s limber, sporting shouldering of “The Martian” that gets my vote, for probing the hairline cracks of one of Hollywood’s most solidly built star personae. Playing a man forced to live not just by his wits but his wit, Damon must project both his signature geniality and the internally setting frost of mortal panic that works against it. That’s harder than it looks, which is Damon’s general modus operandi; as opposed to Leonardo DiCaprio, whose campaign hinges on his work being every bit as hard as it looks. Which man is winning an Oscar on Sunday? Go figure.
► Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Brie Larson has already won SAG and BAFTA awards for her performance as a mother held captive in Room, and is the clear favorite in the category.
- Brie Larson (Room) — -900
- Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) — 10-1
- Cate Blanchett (Carol) — 20-1
- Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) — 25-1
- Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) — 40-1
From Christopher Orr at The Atlantic:
The actress categories were jumbled by rampant category fraud, with both Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) and Rooney Mara (Carol) lobbying successfully for nods in the supporting category instead of up here where they belonged. (Something similar took place last year, with Patricia Arquette getting a supporting actress nomination—and win—for what was really a lead performance in Boyhood. Seriously, Academy: Take back control of your categories.) The result is a hollowing out of this category that, among other effects, enabled Jennifer Lawrence to sneak in on reputation alone. (I love the actress, but Joy was a mess.)
The heavy favorite here is Brie Larson, and rightly so. (If you want to go against the grain, Saoirse Ronan is a dark—probably very dark—horse pick here.) Room was a heartbreaking gem of a movie, and Larson was integral to almost every scene. It was a considerable surprise that it was nominated in so many categories, but it’s always nice when the Academy shines light on such a small film. As terrific as Larson is in Room, however, I think she was even better in an even smaller film, 2013’s Short Term 12. Don’t let the inscrutable title put you off: Destin Daniel Cretton’s film about a home for at-risk teens is, as I argued at the time, “a genuine stunner, a work of ardent, life-affirming humanism.” Larson is every bit as good in it as she is in Room—better even. I thought she deserved to win best actress two years ago, and I’m delighted that she seems on the brink of winning now.
Who will win: Brie Larson
Who ought to win: Brie Larson
Who was nominated but shouldn’t have been: Jennifer Lawrence
Who wasn’t nominated but should have been: Daisy Ridley (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
► Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
If one can say anything about the possibility of Alicia Vikander winning an Academy Award, it’s that she’s probably going to get an award for the wrong performance. Vikander appeared in seven films during 2015, and her most distinctive role was arguably as an artificial woman in Ex Machina. That’s not to say she’s bad in The Danish Girl or undeserving, but many believe her strength in the category is not specific to the movie, but as an acknowledgment for her collective work as a supporting player in multiple films.
- Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) — Even
- Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) — 2-1
- Rooney Mara (Carol) — 3-1
- Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) — 22-1
- Rachel McAdams (Spotlight) — 75-1
From Richard Brody at The New Yorker:
► Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
This is Sylvester Stallone’s race to lose, and one of the few spots available for the both critically and commercially successful Creed to shine.
- Sylvester Stallone (Creed) — -200
- Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) — 5-2
- Tom Hardy (The Revenant) — 12-1
- Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight) — 14-1
- Christian Bale (The Big Short) — 25-1
From Richard Lawson, Katey Rich and Michael Logan at Vanity Fair:
After a fascinating pre-nominations derby of skilled actors in scene-stealing roles competing in a wide-open category, it all became so simple the night of the Golden Globes, when Sylvester Stallone received a standing ovation as he rose to accept his award, and the hearts of Hollywood seemed fully pinned to their sleeves. None of his competition seemed to have the heart to put up a fight against the Italian Stallion and who can blame them? Creed, cruelly shut out of the rest of the Oscar derby, deserves its moment here as much as Stallone does.
Who should win: Call us crazy, but Tom Hardy’s mumbling, menacing villain turn in The Revenant is yet another argument for why he’s one of the greatest screen actors to emerge in recent years.
Who will win: Stallone (and truth be told, he deserves it, too).
► Best Original Screenplay:
This is thought to be the category where Spotlight has the best chance of scoring an Oscar, since it also scored a victory earlier this month for original screenplay from the Writers Guild (WGA). If any other film has an outside chance of taking it away from Spotlight, it’s probably Inside Out. Pixar’s story of a young girl dealing with the complexity of emotion, and learning bittersweet truths really connected not only with children, but also many adults and critics.
-
Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight — -400
- Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Ronnie del Carmen, Inside Out — 9-2
-
Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus, Andrea Berloff, Straight Outta Compton — 25-1
- Alex Garland, Ex Machina — 40-1
-
Matt Charman, Joel & Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies — 50-1
From Cara Buckley at The New York Times:
‘Spotlight’
“All the President’s Men” has long been the benchmark for journalism films, and might claim more dramatic flash, but “Spotlight” was far more accurate in its depiction of the largely unglamorous, tedious work lives of newspaper reporters. This was a result of Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer’s restrained script, which laid the groundwork for the film’s understated emotional punch. The film’s chances for best picture have slipped, and academy members might be keen to at least hand Mr. McCarthy this prize. He and his colleague also won a Golden Globe and a Bafta, though they do face competition from “Inside Out.”
► Best Adapted Screenplay:
In some ways, the most notable thing about this category is who wasn’t nominated: Aaron Sorkin. Despite receiving a Golden Globe for his work on the Steve Jobs screenplay, Sorkin was left out. In his place, most believe Adam McKay’s and Charles Randolp’s adaptation of The Big Short will pick up the honor.
- Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short — -300
-
Emma Donoghue, Room — 6-1
-
Phyllis Nagy, Carol — 11-1
- Drew Goddard, The Martian — 20-1
- Nick Hornby, Brooklyn — 22-1
From Kyle Buchanan at Vulture:
Any winner here would be worthy, but The Big Short has several advantages: The movie is nearest to winning Best Picture, and it already picked up several screenplay awards earlier in the season, including from the WGA.
► Best Animated Feature:
Pixar tends to own this category most years, and it’s hard to see any film winning over Inside Out.
- Inside Out — -1000
- Anomalisa — 12-1
- Shaun the Sheep Movie — 15-1
- Boy and the World — 60-1
- When Marnie Was There — 40-1
From Anne Thompson at Indiewire:
After an incredible streak that brought it 7 trophies in this category, Pixar has been shut out two years running. If there's one thing we were always certain about, it's that "Inside Out" would change that this year. While Duke Johnson and Charlie Kaufman's "Anomalisa" is a masterpiece, it seems like nothing will be able to stop the sheer brilliance and inventive originality of "Inside Out."
Predicted Winner: "Inside Out"
Potential Spoiler: No Spoiler