The Sanders campaign is breaking down, unable now to see any path toward stopping Clinton, except maybe some unlikely action by the FBI. His “revolution” strategy has failed. Badly. And his campaign has abandoned most of the Super Tuesday states just as he abandoned South Carolina.
It’s coming… Clinton will win big in SC, and across Super Tuesday – the only question will be if she matches “expectations,” and it is looking like she will crush Sanders in SC, and perhaps the rest of the South. The Black vote may undo Sanders, just as it undid Clinton in 2008.
Sanders States: Vermont, and maybe… MA, CO, WV, MN, OK, WI. And many of these could be close, so he’s very unlikely to overcome the Clinton margins in other, larger states. So now the question becomes, how and when does Bernie end his campaign. Let’s look at some factors that could dictate how he – and his followers – decide to proceed.
It’s not the money – or maybe it is!
Sanders won’t end his campaign because of a lack of funds. He’s awash in money; and may have the ability to raise more even if his results aren’t very good. In fact, having that cash might inspire the campaign to keep going. To keep paying its staff and interns. To run more ads to get his message out, and maybe keep Clinton from moving back toward the center.
How likely, really, are the “what ifs”?
What if…. The FBI uncovers info that gets Clinton indicted? Or at least gives Clinton supporters cause for concern? That Clinton has a health problem? And, if anything like this happens, would Joe Biden jump in to take her place and deny Sanders anyway? Could there be a third party candidate? Well, anything is possible. (Remember the Edwards scandal in 2008?) But, let’s be honest. None of these are likely to transpire.
What does Bernie want his legacy to be?
This could be the key. Does Bernie want to go down as the spoiler? Would convincing his young true believers that they should sit the election out just to show the Democratic establishment that he can undermine them appeal to him? Will he condone a scorched earth option by his staff and supporters? Bernie is 74 and can serve as a VT Senator until he dies if he chooses, so it’s highly unlikely he’s concerned about future election possibilities.
What can Hillary & the Dems entice him with?
Is there a position in a potential Clinton administration that might entice him? Ranking Dem on the Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee? Some sort of Banking Task Force? Of course if he plays ball he can be given a big role at the Convention. Maybe some wording in the platform. He can get the same treatment that Obama gave Clinton in 2008. And Hillary, of course, campaigned effectively for Obama. But could Sanders be convincing in that kind of role? And how helpful would it be to Clinton in securing the moderate voters and independents she needs to win the general to have a further-left socialist stumping for her? On the other hand, energizing young voters and others that have been adamantly in the Sanders-or-bust camp could be helpful. But if Sanders stays in the race until the Convention and Trump is the Republican nominee, Clinton and the Democratic Party may not be in the mood to offer him much at all. In other words, it may be up to Hillary’s people to decide how important a role Sanders can play in her campaign, and what the timing would be to make it worthwhile.
What will Sanders followers do?
Some might quickly conclude that Sanders followers will be angry, sad, and ready to turn off the political process. But in 2008 the same was said of Hillary’s most adamant supporters and, for the most part, that scenario didn’t pan out. Against Trump, Hillary might not need enthusiastic support, just votes. But could Sanders actually deliver the votes of his supporters to Clinton in November? Maybe that will turn out to be the most important question of all, and one that will remain undetermined until November.
Meanwhile… we political junkies can enjoy the ride.