I wrote earlier this week about the importance of Friday’s election in Iran. Given Khameini’s age, this election is likely to determine who the next Supreme Leader will be. Voters are chosing a new parliament and a new Assembly of Experts (clerics who will pick the next Supreme Leader). In some ways, it is also a referendum on the nuclear deal and President Rouhani’s success in getting sanctions lifted.
Preliminary results have begun to come in for the parliament, and it looks pretty good for Moderates and Reformists. In Tehran, of 30 open seats, only one might have gone to a conservative candidate.
Turnout was very high, numerous polling places had deadlines extended for up to 6 hours due to long lines.
As in many other countries, Iranians who vote are made to dip a finger in indelible ink to prevent them from casting multiple votes (kind of like a stamp at a club). Inked fingers were everywhere on social media, helping drive turnout.
From preliminary results, it seems moderates will make significant gains in the Assembly election:
Rouhani and key ally and former president, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, were leading the race for the Assembly of Experts with most votes counted, and appeared to be sure of winning seats, early results released on Saturday showed. [...]
Two prominent hardliners were on course to be elected with lesser scores in the experts assembly race: Ahmad Jannati was in 11th place and the assembly’s current chairman, Mohammad Yazdi, was 15th. Arch-conservative Mohammad-Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi appeared unlikely to win a seat, according to partial results.
Iran allows prisoners to vote from jail. It looks like track pants are popular.
The most conservative factions were struggling to win even a single seat in Parliament from Tehran:
With millions of votes still to be counted, one prominent hard-liner, Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, the spiritual leader of a group known as the Steadfastness Front, was running in 16th place in the council election in the Tehran area, barely holding on to the last open seat. Other hard-line figures were also failing to attract much support. A poor showing, if confirmed by the final results, would be a severe blow to their standing and influence.
Ayatollah Yazdi was the most prominent clerical supporter of former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, though he withdrew his support when Ahmadinejad tried to challenge Khameini directly. In 2009, Ahmadinejad was re-elected in a presidential election that was widely believed to have been stolen. This led to widespread protests and a violent crackdown. Ayatollah Yazdi was widely understood to have supported the crackdown by paramilitary forces loyal to Ahmadinejad:
During the height of the crisis, one of the most ultra-conservative ayatollahs drilled that message directly to the Revolutionary Guards, urging them to put aside any doubt and follow the supreme leader. Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi -- believed to be Ahmadinejad's spiritual mentor -- addressed a gathering of Guards commanders on June 22, only days after security forces broke up one of the biggest protests.
The mother of one of the protesters killed voted:
Results from more rural provinces which tend to vote for conservatives, will take a while to filter in, and numerous races will head to a run-off between the top two candidates: