written not from the perspective of being a Clinton supporter, which I am, but from the perspective of someone who studies and teaches politics, and observes.
First, despite the overwhelming loss, Sanders and MOST of his supporters will not YET be discouraged. They look ahead to Tuesday, where it is possible he will take all the delegates in VT, and where he has some hopes of winning MN & CO (caucuses) and MA and OK.
But, I suspect that some who might have considered Sanders might now be hesitant. Anyone paying attention to the impact across all demographics in SC might wonder if Sanders should have spent some more time/resources to hold down the margin. I have heard he had 200 paid staffers in state, and if that is so, there should be some real questions about what that means going forward.
The four aforementioned states have much smaller African-American populations, which can give Sanders some hope. But one wonders how badly he might perform in the African-American communities in GA, TX, AL, VA and AR. While none of those states has anything like the proportion of AA voters as does SC, a similar performance in that demographic could again mean that Clinton does better in amassing delegates than polling might otherwise suggest.
On the other hand, one can question if Clinton spent too much time running up the score in SC at the expense of possibly blocking Sanders from winning in the 4 states he has targeted other than VT.
Listening to Clinton speak tonight, I think she has found a message that communicates to a lot of people. I also think that she posited something in clear opposition to Trump:
"Despite what you hear, we don't need to make America great again. America has never stopped being great.”
I have not yet been able to find a full transcript of her speech, which I thought was quite effective. It went beyond her normal stump speech, and laid down some clear markers.
It was also effective when she quieted the crowd (which was quite enthusiastic) down by lowering her voice and speaking quietly for part of the speech. I don’t know if that might have influenced Sanders in his remarks in Rochester MN a few hours later, where for much of his remarks he also talked quietly.
It might seem hard to project going forward, but I suggest that Sanders needs to win at least MA and one other state besides VT on Tuesday, or he is going to find hard going in the media coverage. He really needs to win a primary outside of New England to seem credibly. And he cannot continue to lose the African American community drawing less than 20% to have any hope of remaining competitive. Remember, if he cannot win more elected delegates than Clinton, there is no doubt the Super Delegates will put her well over the top. Obama was able to get there by wiping Clinton out in the caucuses, for which her 2008 campaign was totally unprepared. There are not unprepared this time, and even should Sanders narrowly win CO and MN, his net in delegates is going to pale with what Clinton should net in the Southern states.
On the Republican side, should Trump win all except TX on Tuesday, then win MI on March 8, and sweep the winner take all states including FL and OH on March 15, it is totally over. Should he win TX and thereby effectively end Cruz’s campaign, he is less likely to win FL, although still a favorite. So far. We have to see if Rubio’s attack begins to cut into Trump’s support (doubtful) and also how Trump and his new sidekick Christie respond.
Regardless of what happens Tuesday, even if the way the delegate math works will make it basically impossible for Bernie to surpass Hillary in elected delegates, I would expect his campaign to continue. But I also expect that once it becomes clear that he cannot achieve that — as I think will be the case no later than after March 15 — that the tenor of his remarks will change and revert to pushing Clinton on policy.
Of course, there can always be events in the news that can reshape the campaign. A serious international crisis or issue of terrorism is likely to boost Clinton further over Sanders. More serious issues about the emails, or possibly the contents of the speeches, could boost Sanders.
But as things currently stand, after tonight Sanders’ path has become exponentially more difficult that it became immediately after Nevada, where he significantly outspent Clinton yet failed to catch her.
I will watch between now and Tuesday, and then reevaluate on Wednesday.
One set of data that leads me to all this. It is not merely that the overall Democratic vote is significantly down from 2008. It is that in most of the contests so far the percentage of the vote 25 and under is also significantly down. In otherwords, I do not see the evidence in Sanders either expanding the overall electorate or in bringing in enough additional young voters to change the general dynamics of the race.
I may offer more thoughts midday on Tuesday, since the school system in which I teach has decided to close for the primary in Virginia (we have well over 100 elementary schools used as voting precincts, they tend not to have much parking, and there is some belief that the overall turnout including the Republicans will be up significantly).
So make of this what you will.
In 2008, after the Potomac Primaries of MD, VA and DC, where Obama destroyed Clinton, it was basically no longer possible for her to catch him in delegates. And yet I felt she should stay in, and wrote so here — Obama needed to hone his debating skills, and besides, it would give him the opportunity to build organizations in IN and NC and thus possibly win them in the Fall. She did, he did build organizations, and won both of those states.
I would like Bernie to stay in, if for no other reason than I want Dem debates to continue. The free media advances the chances for a Democratic victory, both by additional visibility and by the clear contrast with what I described in a tweet in response to Reince Preibus on Thursday as the food fight in the clown car that was Thursday’s Republican debate.
So there you have it. My observations and analysis. Make of it what you will.
Peace.