I will try to state fact here without hurting anyone’s fee fees. But if feelings are hurt, based on facts — then I don’t see how that is my fault. You know what I mean?
This article at fivethirtyeight.com was written at 7:38 PM on Saturday night, before the results were even in, and the scope of the total devastation and carnage of the 50 point squeaker became evident.
Here are the crib notes:
Sanders lost black voters 14 percent to 86 percent. That doomed him in a contest in which 61 percent of voters were black. I would say that dooms him moving forward. My oh my, how things change when voting takes place in state where there are a few POC. Also, I’m curious as to whether Killer Mike and/or Professor West will have seats on the Sanders bus moving forward. Tad Devine and Jeff Weaver made a serious miscalculation having those two bozos in the fold.
I realized Hillary had this race in the bag when she rolled out Morgan Freeman vs. Spike Lee, Killer Mike and the great Professor West. I’ll take Morgan Freeman.
Sanders needs something to change because frankly he’s losing. Duh.
Sanders’s loss of momentum couldn’t have come at a worst time for his campaign. There are six Super Tuesday states (AL, AR, GA, TN, TX, VA) where black voters made up a larger share of the electorate in 2008 than they did in Iowa, New Hampshire or Nevada this year.
What’s worse for Sanders — of the 865 delegates up for grabs Tuesday, 66 percent come from these six states. An average of polls in each state gives Clinton at least a 23 percentage point lead in all of them. If the delegates from these states broke perfectly proportionally based on the polling average, Clinton would end up with a 369 to 202 delegate lead. It’s difficult to oversell how big that lead is...the way that delegates are awarded in Democratic primaries (proportionally) makes it a tall task to come back from a 100+ delegate deficit. You can’t just win; you have to win big.
In the words of the great Dandy Don Meredith — “Turn Out The Lights, The Party’s Over”
To Sanders supporters — Yes I would obviously vote for Bernie if he won the nomination. He won’t win the nomination. Thank you and good day.