Democrats:
Simply put, the Clinton Campaign is now moving in for the a series of combination blows that has the goal of pushing the Sanders Campaign into the corner. A good working over is set to take place Super Tuesday but the Campaign is already looking beyond those contests to the big show in Florida and Ohio on March 15. As I stated before the South Carolina huge victory, Clinton has secured the support of the most reliable, most dependable Democratic demographic, Black women. That is without a doubt enough of an advantage to secure the nomination even in a competitive primary. But the Campaign has to demonstrate broader strength to prove a true general election contender. I think Colorado is the more immediate test, but there is no question Florida and Ohio are huge. The candidate gave a great closing speech, demonstrating an ability to move with the times, incorporating many of Bernie Sanders messaging, and improving her delivery. She's getting better as a candidate.
However, as I keep beating on this drum until folks in Downtown Brooklyn wake up, turnout was down. Again. Let me be clear, every single explanation I have heard is weak when compared to all the promises made about these new data, analysis and targeting tools. For which hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested. For which there are ample resources in manpower. For which Democrats have depend on to reach voters and turn them out in the general election. Either it is working or it isnt. If the primary results are any measure, it isn't. I don't know what other results I should be looking at. A system designed for turnout should... turn out. Did all the voters from 2008 drop dead? If not, why aren't we motivating them to get involved and vote? I want to know NOW. Not in October when early voting begins. Republicans are breaking records with none of the tools we have.
For the Sanders Campaign, there is no way to minimize or spin it: South Carolina was catastrophic news, coming at the worst possible time. Clinton will dominate earned media with positive coverage for the next 48 hours, a crucial period. The states are about to start coming at him hard and fast with little opportunity for retail to drive turnout. The risk is his campaign turns into a protest, not aiming to win but to make 'voices heard.' That's a path to oblivion that the media will almost certainly ignore. As the campaign moves into the population centers, where the heart of the Democratic Party beats, the Sanders Campaign simply has to do better in large cities. As I said last time, a broader message, less laser focused on the most liberal slice of the electorate is long overdue. That is if winning is still the goal.
Finally, I think its fair to say the Sanders folks can stop promising political revolution this cycle. Once again, turnout was down sharply. What we have here is a normal presidential Democratic primary with a mainstream campaign and a left of mainstream campaign. Still, my hope is for a continued competitive primary, but with the Sanders Campaign conceding big population states, I am less confident we're going to get one. So, I am restoring Clinton's orderly victory expection. Clinton's huge margin of victory and Sanders abandoning huge swaths of territory is the reason.
Verdict: Hillary Clinton wins orderly primary, and wins a close general election
Republican Verdict: Still Trump in a contested convention, close loss in the general election. More on Wednesday.