While Donald Trump’s dominance over the Republican field is now universally acknowledged after his string of three straight dominant primary wins, just what kind of advantage does he have heading into Super Tuesday? A very, very large one, according to the polls—yuge, you might say.
In the 11 contests that will play a role in awarding delegates to the Republican National Convention, Trump leads in eight of them—and in many, by wide margins.
The chart below summarizes the polling averages for the entire GOP field for every Super Tuesday state, according to Huffington Post Pollster, with the vote share of each state’s leader bolded:
Super Tuesday Polling
State |
Delegates |
Trump |
Rubio |
Cruz |
Kasich |
Carson |
Alabama |
50 |
42 |
20 |
17 |
5 |
11 |
AlasKA |
28 |
28 |
7 |
24 |
2 |
9 |
ARKANSAS |
40 |
23 |
23 |
27 |
4 |
11 |
Georgia |
76 |
36 |
22 |
21 |
9 |
8 |
Massachusetts |
42 |
50 |
20 |
10 |
14 |
1 |
Minnesota |
38 |
18 |
23 |
21 |
n/a |
11 |
Oklahoma |
43 |
33 |
22 |
22 |
7 |
6 |
Tennessee |
58 |
40 |
19 |
22 |
6 |
9 |
Texas |
155 |
29 |
16 |
36 |
8 |
6 |
Vermont |
16 |
33 |
15 |
8 |
14 |
4 |
Virginia |
49 |
40 |
23 |
17 |
7 |
6 |
In Arkansas, Minnesota, Tennessee, and Vermont, only one poll apiece has been conducted this year, so those are used in lieu of an average—and note that Arkansas and Minnesota account for two of the three states where Trump trails. The less data we have, of course, the less likely it is to be reliable, especially since some of it is fairly old. (For instance, the Minnesota poll we’re using was conducted in mid-January.)
But even states with a more robust crop of polling, such as hotly contested Texas, could surprise us as well. Surveying primaries is no easy task: The final polling average put Hillary Clinton up 24 points in South Carolina, but she wound up winning by twice that margin. The GOP establishment is, of course, fervently hoping Trump’s poll numbers are also wrong—in the other direction—but so far, outside of Iowa and its funky caucus, polls have generally pegged the Donald’s support accurately.
Perhaps more interesting is the fight for second place. Marco Rubio is in the runner-up spot in six states, versus just three for Ted Cruz. But a number of these states are extremely close, and their final rankings could easily vary quite a bit. What’s more, Cruz leads in the delegate-rich jackpot of Texas, his home state. As a result, even if Rubio nets a few more silver medals, Cruz could very well walk way with more delegates. (To understand exactly how those are awarded, check out this post from Taniel.)
But no matter who gets crowned Super Tuesday’s best loser, all the polls show Trump in a position to romp. And if he does, who could stop him then?