It’s the election year defying “conventional wisdom” aka punditry aka elite consensus.
Decades of economic stagnation, rising inequality, soaring health & education bills, downsizing, outsourcing etc have taken their toll. As the beltway talks about the recovery, many Americans still think the recession hasn’t ended.
Donald Trump is being portrayed as a racist, sexist, xenophobic know-nothing and his followers the same. These are all indisputable, but hardly the ultimate source of his popularity. Its his economic populism and anti-establishment fervor that is actually lighting the fire under his campaign. If you listened to his Super Tuesday news conference it was there for all to see. Attacks on NAFTA/TPP, preserving SS/Medicare and making healthcare affordable, corruption and impotence of the elites, disastrous wars etc etc. These are all popular opinions among the wider population.
The Republican elite are not running scared because of his racist/xenophobia (they’ve been running this stuff for years). It’s because he is trashing the “conservative” economic and foreign policy consensus.
Meanwhile Hillary Clinton embodies the establishment. To ensure that no one would be left in doubt, she went out of her way to earn millions in speaking fees from corporations right before she ran for office. You can’t make this stuff up. She is deeply tied in with NAFTA/TPP(There’s plenty of footage/evidence), Wall Street, the Obama administration(unpopular on the right/ with many independents) etc
Brushing aside Trumps supporters and his appeal as simply racist anxiety is wrongheaded but understandable. Elites are unwilling or unable to see how much economic angst there is among the hoi polloi.
And discounting his attraction even among minorities, who are not immune to a populist economic message. Heck, some African Americans may even agree with his attacks on immigration, as Tavis Smiley argues here. Between reduced turnout because Pres. Obama is not on the ticket and the peeling off of some votes, it’s not looking pretty.
The Clinton General Election strategy? Identity politics(Trump is coming for the Muslims, the women, the minorities!) and attempts to win over “moderate Republicans”. This may have worked in 2012, but this is 2016, people. Oh and the Supreme Court. That may be just enough, but who knows?
Even a Clinton Victory will not stave off trouble
Even if Clinton manages a win against Trump, the Democrats will almost certainly face a beating in 2018 and 2020. Who seriously believes that anything will change in a Clinton administration? There are already whispers of Larry Fink from BlackRock & a team from Wall Street ready to take over the Treasury Department. Larry was on a shortlist to replace Geithner, so this is not empty speculation. And he is for privatizing Social Security as well as all in on the deficit obsession.
Can you imagine the attacks from the left and populist right?
Also, we can almost certainly expect another recession in the next 4 years. Will the response be any better than under Pres. Obama’s?
And with the DWS theory of DNC management, the Democratic party is barreling towards becoming a very diminished party.
So let me recount this:
In response to a nativist populist who is talking about trashing NAFTA/TPP, staying away from frivolous wars, universal healthcare, anti-establishment, stagnant incomes and lost jobs;
The Democrats want to run Hillary who pushed for NAFTA/TPP, is a war hawk, against single payer, is the very definition of an entitled establishment figure with deep ties to Wall Street.
I haven’t even mentioned the scandals and faux-scandals that will give Trump more than enough material for several election cycles.
The same people who assured us Trump wouldn’t win now want us to believe he will be finished by Clinton? And that the Dem party is just fine and that pesky Sanders is ruining things and is not even a “true” Democrat.
Not looking good.