VIEWING THE ELECTION THROUGH THE FILTER OF THE BETTING MARKETS
A month ago, back when Marco Rubio was the Republican party's great white hope, I decided to swim in a master's swim meet. I was three months post-op from my Achilles' tendon surgery, and not permitted to begin climbing yet. I had begun swimming as part of my surgery rehab. Now, back in the day, I was a good swimmer, and with no climbs in my immediate future, a swim meet seemed like a fun way to maintain my motivation. Despite my long layoff, I felt good in the water and I began to contemplate how I would do. For the 50 yard freestyle, clearly a swim close to my best time of 21.77 was totally out of reach. I took a look at the type of times people my age were doing, and I decided that something under 26 seconds, or 20% off my peak, was a reasonable expectation.
The day of the meet arrived. My swim felt great. I looked up at the scoreboard at my time and saw this:
30.77
The number was inconceivable. I blinked my eyes and looked again in disbelief. The number did not change. At that moment I experienced something very much like what Bernie Sanders's supporters are experiencing today.
Complete. Total. Disbelief.
I mean, I did a 50 free off the wall with one arm in 27 seconds, how could I be seeing 30 seconds?
How?
Easy. A game of chicken between the dream and reality.
This moment was always the probable outcome. Looking back, the seeds of the destruction of my dream were always there, but somehow, I managed to look past them, seduced by a glimpse of a shiny future.
The seeds of my/our destruction were obvious.
It had been 20 years since I swam in a meet. 20 years. And not 20 years, like, from age 20 to age 40, we are talking from age 42 to age 62. What was I expecting?
Bernie is one year removed from not even being a Democrat. He is a self identified democratic socialist. AND, he was not taking on some generic collection of barely known Democrats. He was taking on KING KONG in the towering figure of Hillary Clinton, former first lady, senator and secretary of state. What was he expecting?
Now what?
With my dream reduced to a smoking pile of rubble laying by the side of the road, what would I do?
I could tell myself stories about how I would have done a good time if I hadn't been sick the week before, or if I had been able to drive off the start and the turn without favoring my surgically repaired leg.
But that is crap, and I knew it.
Bernie's supporters can blame the media, Bill, Hillary, they can claim victory is still at hand.
But that is crap, and I know it, because that is my job.
I have been a data analyst for 30 years. I am in the business of providing people with coldest and harshest understanding of objective reality that can be revealed. If I tell people what they want to hear I am fired. If I do it again my credibility is gone. My company is not called Stone Cold World because it sounds cool. (well, mostly not because it sounds cool)
I describe the cold reality, not because I want to rain on anybody's parade, but because that is my job, and that is the best platform from which to make choices that move you in a direction that is in some way, shape or form, related to what you want.
Bernie's dream of becoming the Democratic nominee through the primary process is toast. I'm not going to bore you with the ugly reality of the math today.
What I am here to offer Bernie supporters, in a very subjective way, is something I discovered.
In acknowledging the reality, my only option was to get to work, start training, invest the time, and work my ass off. After that, after I have re-calibrated my expectations, I get to try again, and see if I can create a reality that, if not as glorious as I had originally imagined, would be something I could live with.
If you are a Bernie supporter, assigning blame, attacking others, writing in his name or voting for Trump is a self-destructive act of denial.
Find something you can live with. Do not quit. Save the world. It's hard, unforgiving work, it hurts and it takes forever, but somebody needs to do it, so, suck it up and get to work.
Should Bernie quit? Absolutely not.
Why not?
In case of fire break glass.
The betting markets have Bernie at 5%.
Why?
Because there is a genuine risk of the Republicans indicting HRC and Bernie needs to be on the bench, game tested and ready to go.
It's not over, it's just not what you expected.
* A quick addition. Somehow, some people who have read this are coming away with the impression that I think there is an indictment, or that one is imminent. To clarify, there is no indictment and I see no evidence of one being imminent. What I see is a 5% chance in the betting markets where the math is somewhat worse, and I see Hillary Clinton, who inspires rabid hatred. Risk of something weird. Okay?