Presently, Clinton leads Sanders in pledged delegates 1,266 to 1,038. Since there will be 4,051 pledged delegates on the first ballot in Philadelphia, to have a majority (2,026 delegates), Clinton would need 760 of the remaining 1,747 delegates, or just 43.5%.
So that’s how the slope to the nomination is tilted in her favor at the moment. Of course, equivalently, Sanders needs 56.5% of the remaining delegates to get the gold.
So how will upcoming contests affect this situation? Take WI next Tuesday, with 86 pledged delegates at stake.
If the WI race is split 50/50, Clinton’s requirement for the remaining races goes down slightly, from 43.5% to 43.2%, not a big effect. In fact, the change from Clinton getting between 40% and 60% of WI delegates is only 43.7% to 42.7%, only about a 1% change.
NY is a bit more influential:
So a 50/50 split in NY reduces her requirement elsewhere from 43.5% to 42.5%. If she were to get 60%, she would only need 40.8% of the remainder.
Taking NY and CA together:
The effect here is substantial. If Clinton were to just get 50% of the NY+CA delegates, she would only need 39% of the remainder. If she nets 55% of the NY+CA vote, her requirement drops to 35% for the rest.
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