Democrats:
Last edition I spoke of a Clinton 'sit on the lead' strategy and after a string of big victories by the Sanders Campaign it is clear that is what they are doing. The campaign is already looking past the primary to the general election contest. It is a safe route, if uninspired. The delegate mathematics are what they are so the campaign is wise to begin planning for and defining the contours of an epic fight for victory in November. They've concluded they can't push Sanders out of the race and he isn't a threat to their ultimate ambitions so why bother with him? That makes sense. But again, not inspired combat. Perhaps they will get more of a sharper contrast with Trump by 'out-nice-ing' him than going on a more negative, aggressive footing. Just might work. Clinton Campaign leads all candidates in total votes and is in the best position of any campaign to win the White House.
Quite a reversal from its 2008 fortunes when it was up against a dynamo.
The Sanders Campaign is keeping up the fight, but the fight has turned very limited in scope the reality of the delegate math begins to set in. Still, even this late in the season when most candidates have grown and campaigns look to present a plausible President, the Sanders Campaign is sticking to its very narrow message, aimed only at the most liberal and youthful slice of the electorate. The Sanders Campaign hasn't been very active in the policy argument either. Nothing new, nothing newsworthy. However it is clear he has strong support in many parts of the country (except the South) and will continue to beat initial expectations. Clearly the liberal wing of Democratic Party is enlarged because of his campaign. It isn't enough to win, clearly, but I suspect in his wake a more adept and skillful politician could capitalize on what is clearly a larger market for liberal ideas.
Verdict: Hillary Clinton wins orderly nomination and wins a comfortable but not convincing general election.
Republican:
Donald Trump is clearly not even close to being prepared to be a major party nominee. He is ensuring with his massive mouth that a majority of Americans permanently decide he is unfit for the office. Yet he leads the race and is favored to be its nominee. His campaign manager was arrested and is being prosecuted for assaulting a woman, a journalist! Arrested and prosecuted. In the middle of a campaign! Worse, Trump doesn't even fire the guy, he praises him. Then turns around and attacks the woman, blaming her for being assaulted! He's clearly far outside the mainstream of what is acceptable presidential behavior. Will it hurt his chances? Who can say for sure. But I sure can't see any growth in him as a candidate either. He hates thinking. He loves talking.
Ted Cruz, on the strength of his long held advantage in organization (that's why hes still around), is looking to steal the nomination from Trump at the convention since he can't beat him at the ballot box. Ultimately I find this strategy to be a fail. I think Cruz knows this too. I think he knows he's not going to be the nominee, but he's young. A second place finish is probably a good place to be. Trump loses the general election and there he is. He's got a jump on everyone else i 2020. So I stand by my view that if Cruz can't win the nomination, he then throws his support to Trump by releasing his delegates to both Trump and the Establishment, which effectively will give it to Trump. But, Cruz will refuse to be a VP nominee. He doesn't want to go down with Trump, he just wants to watch him lose.
Verdict: Trump wins a contested convention but loses the general election by outside the margin of error numbers.