There is no “Serious Candidate” in This Race
Throughout this election cycle the Clinton campaign and “the very serious people” in the media (e.g. Paul Krugman) are pushing the notion that Hillary Clinton is the only candidate in this race that is level headed and reality driven. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Certainly Bernie’s single payer proposal and desire to break up the banks are not going to happen if he becomes President. At the same time do you know what will not happen if Hillary becomes President? Immigration reform, gun control, equal pay legislation, or even mere updates to Obamacare and Dodd Frank. Things she has been promising over and over again throughout this campaign. So it’s bizarre that the very same people who criticize Bernie for making unobtainable promises to his supporters, will in the very next breath prop up Hillary as this reasonable, pragmatic candidate. In fact, very recently Hillary expressed pity for those poor souls who have been supposedly hoodwinked by the Bernie Sanders campaign in the most tone deaf and patronizing way possible.
Anyhow, the main reason nobody will get anything done is that the congressional districts were gerrymandered by Republican dominated state legislatures following the 2010 wave election. The next time Democrats will have a legitimate shot of retaking the House of Representatives will be in 2022 following the 2020 census. So all these proclamations by either candidate are ridiculous. No matter how small or large their proposal, Republicans will not give an inch. Sweet baby Jesus, Republicans are barely willing to fund our debts since they retook the House under Obama. Thus, the idea that Hillary has some special mojo that Obama doesn’t have to bend Republicans to her will is pure fantasy. To be sure the only time Obama has gotten any major legislation through Congress is when Democrats dominated the House and Senate, and due to the aforementioned reasons that is simply not a reasonable expectation for the next several years.
The only area where Hillary will have any sort of latitude is foreign policy. This is where Obama has been able to distinguish himself during the final two years of his presidency despite being stymied in Congress. However, I do not think I am being unfair when I say her judgement on foreign policy has been less than stellar...
Hillary Clinton is Not Likeable Enough
Back in 2008 then candidate Obama received (for some reason) criticism for charitably referring to Hillary Clinton as being “likeable enough.” I love you Mr. President, but you are wrong. Hillary is not likeable enough. To be sure she lost that nomination, and is having a difficult time putting away a crotchety, old, white dude who is not even a Democrat. If Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, or Amy Klobuchar ran against either one of these people this nomination would have been over long ago.
Furthermore, her negatives are historically terrible for a party’s nominee. Right now it is is at an abysmal 55% unfavorable to a 40% favorable.
To put this in perspective it was noted in a 2012 article in the Daily Beast that Mitt Romney had the worst favorability rating of a nominee in recent memory with a favorability/unfavorability rating of 45.4 unfavorable to 44.1 percent favorable. Having a net -1% rating was considered historically bad in 2012. Hillary is at -15%. Just let that sink in for a moment.
They only reason why Democrats are likely to win this year is because Republicans are in an even worse situation with Trump and Cruz. And even against Ted Cruz, Hillary is probably just going to barely beat him. And unless there is a neat and tidy resolution to this FBI investigation over the summer (as unfair and silly as it may be), there could be significant consequences for Clinton when she goes up against a candidate who is willing to exploit it. Moreover, if the Republican establishment is able to effectively sideline Cruz and Trump and put out a nominee that is acceptable to the great majority of the GOP base, then things won’t be looking pretty for Democrats. That is a tall order, however, and they are more likely to go with Cruz in a contested convention unless Trump wins it outright. But anything can happen, and this certainly doesn’t bode well for 2020, which is a very important election cycle due to redistricting.
[Disclaimer: I am not a Bernie supporter (was an O’Malley supporter) nor do I think he has a good shot of winning the nomination, so if you engage in whataboutery in the comment section I A) won’t care and B) will very likely agree with you.]