Today, as the Sanders campaign has been positing recently, Tad Devine suggested that if Bernie Sanders did not get a majority of pledged delegates he would go all the way to the convention to contest the nomination if Sec Clinton did not received the majority of total delegates needed for the nomination (including superdelegates) of 2383 completely from pledged delegates. Indeed a front page writer is positing tonight that
It would be ironic if Trump is the one who reaches the magic delegate number—and Democrats end up with a contested convention.
And I have a simple answer to this speculation fueled by the Sanders campaign: No. It will not happen.
Why can I say that so confidently? Because this exact scenario has already happened. In 2008 Barack Obama finished the primary calendar with a majority of pledged delegates, but his majority of pledged delegates did not meet Devine’s new criteria. However, Barack Obama had enough superdelegate support that his pledged delegate total and superdelegate total, meant that he had crossed the majority of delegates needed. Here’s what the media reported on the night, or day after, the final contests in early June 2008.
On June 3, 2008 the night of the final primaries of 2008, Barack Obama claimed the democratic nomination in a speech in St Paul, when he stated correctly “I will be the Democratic nominee”. This year, if and when Hillary Clinton achieves a majority of pledged delegates, she too will have (and already has) enough superdelegates to get to the majority of overall delegates needed to claim the nomination. During a victory speech one night this calendar season, perhaps when California votes, Hillary Clinton will almost certainly have enough delegates to claim that she will be the Democratic nominee, as Barack Obama did eight years ago. The media, like they did for Obama eight years ago, will report that Clinton has clinched the nomination. The President, having been in the exact same situation eight years before, will say that Hillary Clinton will be the nominee.
Additionally, what would there be to contest? Hillary Clinton would have enough delegates to win the nomination outright at the convention. What is this genius plan behind contesting a nomination? To try and flip delegates who are supporting Hillary Clinton, either voluntarily (supers) or by binding (pledged)? Why would any superdelegate choose the loser of the pledged delegate race after having supported the winner? What on earth could Bernie Sanders possibly say to a Hillary Clinton superdelegate, after her having won the pledged delegate race, for that super to switch? Or is this all about protesting and making as much noise as possible?
Losing is tough. Hillary Clinton herself refused to concede on the night of the final primary in 2008, saying that she would make no decision that night. However she did concede the next day, and gave a speech endorsing Barack Obama later that week. If Bernie Sanders is to be the democratic nominee, the only path for him is to win the pledged delegate race outright (as is the case for Hillary). Any other plan is simply not possible, outright risible and deserves to be openly mocked.
Monday, Apr 11, 2016 · 3:20:55 AM +00:00 · snowman3
In case the original diary is not clear enough. We will have a winner of the pledged delegate race. And that winner will almost certainly get enough super delegate support in order to get to the 2383 majority of delegates needed for the nomination. Ergo, the nominee will be apparent long before the convention, and this nominee will also control the convention process btw. So there will be nothing to contest. A contested convention occurs when the apparent nominee is NOT obvious. Which will not be the case in 2016.