I don’t want to be a buzz kill, but the polls in NY can hardly be said to predict a Hillary Clinton victory, particularly not a large victory, despite the vigorous promotion of the “latest” polls, those of the past week. Since the high point of Hillary Clinton’s primary campaign thus far, on March 15, five pollsters have tested Democratic sentiment for President in New York six times. That really isn’t very much. But, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by substantial majorities in all six of those polls. So optimism in her camp is perfectly sensible. All of the establishment media prognosticators predict her victory.
But it is worth at least noting that only one pollster, a so-so outfit according to 538.com, has tested this race in New York more than once, Emerson College Polling Society. Only the Emerson College Poll offers any procedurally consistent trend line in New York; it measures from a March 16 high point for Secretary Clinton, through Senator Sanders’ recent string of victories which has chopped off nearly 1/3 of Secretary Clinton’s previous pledged delegate lead.
On March 15, Secretary Clinton defeated Senator Sanders decisively and significantly extended her delegate lead, counting her Arizona victory one week later, to well over 300 pledged delegates. As displayed in the chart above, based upon the polling by Emerson College in New York, ending March 16, Secretary Clinton then enjoyed a 48 point lead in expressed voter preference, over Senator Sanders, in the Presidential primary. On April 7, Emerson College completed its second New York poll, finding the margin between the candidates had narrowed to 18 points, shaving 30 points from Secretary Clinton’s New York voter preference lead in just 26 days. Taking the Emerson College results at face value, with 12 days still left until the election, and extrapolating the same rate of decay in voter preference until election day, erodes Secretary Clinton’s lead down to about 4 points. That would be a very close election and a close election can fall either way.
Of course, a finding or two or six is not a prediction, and the Emerson College and other polls in New York don’t actually predict anything, except the likelihood of a close contest between Senator Sanders and Secretary Clinton for a slight advantage in the New York pledged delegate split. How large that advantage turns out to be and to whom it goes may now depends mostly on which campaign can mobilize the most activists to make the calls and knock on the doors to ask for votes and get them out.
New York is in play. Let’s hear what they say.