With Saturday’s victory in the Wyoming caucuses, Bernie Sanders has won eight of the last nine states in the Democratic nomination contest. Sanders won 56 percent of the popular vote to just 44 percent for Hillary Clinton.
But while this string of victories can bring Bernie media momentum, winning states is not relevant to the Democratic race. Winning delegates is. And from that all-important perspective, the Wyoming campaign is just another sign that the Sanders campaign is in deep trouble as the Democratic race moves to the all-important state of New York.
Even though Sanders won the popular vote, Clinton and Sanders got 7 of Wyoming’s 14 delegates because Hillary won key geographic areas. And as Clinton has a massive lead in delegates up to this point, Sanders must win big in the remaining states in order to make up for his deficit.
New York is the key battleground in Sanders’s attempts, but the reality is that this state will probably be the end of the line for his campaign. For starters, polls have consistently shown that Sanders has remained well behind Clinton. A recent Fox News poll shows Clinton with a 53 to 37 percent lead over Sanders, and according to FiveThirtyEight, this lead has remained consistent over the past few months.
Now, some may point out the example of Michigan as a time when the polls were wrong. But there are two key things wrong with hoping that New York can have similar results for Sanders.
First, Michigan was an open primary which allowed independents and Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary. Open primaries are more advantageous for Sanders, whose supporters are often voters new to the political process and expressing frustration with “Washington politics.” Furthermore, the media momentum at the time was trumpeting a Clinton victory after her Super Tuesday successes, which encouraged Clinton supporters to stay home or possibly cross over to vote in what was supposed to be the more contested Republican primary.
Neither of these is true for New York. The state is a closed primary, which prevents Democrats from crossing over to vote for the Republicans and keeps Sanders-supporting independents away from the polls. And with Sanders having won several states in a row, this will encourage Clinton supporters to come out and vote.
Of course, this could also encourage Sanders supporters to vote now that he has a better chance of victory. But even if Sanders somehow pulled off a miracle upset despite these aforementioned problems, it would not be enough. To make up for his delegate deficit, he needs to win by a lot in not just New York, but other upcoming big states like Pennsylvania and Maryland. That is not going to happen.
Sanders has done far better than expected in this Democratic primary, and he should be proud of all he has accomplished. But now it is time for him to settle down, unite behind Clinton, and prepare to take the fight to the Republican Party.