Morning Consult conducted a thorough analysis of multiple polls and found Hillary beating both Trump and Cruz decisively in the November election. Cruz a bit more decisively than Trump, actually, but both in landslide fashion.
Note: They have Kasich winning (due to his perceived strength in the Midwest of his native Ohio and neighboring states), but Kasich is not going anywhere in this nomination contest, he is way behind, has won one state (his own) and if he were to be closer to the nomination a more thorough vetting would be conducted on him, which would impact his numbers at that point. Therefore, I leave Kasich out of this analysis.
50 State Snapshot: Trump, Cruz Lose to Clinton
If the presidential election was held today, businessman Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would lose to Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, according to an extensive Morning Consult analysis of 44,000 poll respondents.
The analysis encompassed 44,000 poll responses in the varying states. For detailed information how the analysis was conducted, read the detailed explanation here:
Estimating General Election Support for President Using Mult-Level Regression and Poststratification
The analysis is the first glimpse of how Clinton might perform against the remaining Republican candidates in every state. It uses the opinions of 44,000 registered voters, collected since January, plus a variety of characteristics in each state like age, gender, and President Obama’s approval rating, to determine what the results of a presidential election might look like now. About 20 percent of voters are undecided, but the maps below capture who wins a plurality in each state, and with that, the electoral college.
Hillary vs. Trump
Demographic |
Hillary Clinton |
Donald Trump |
Don't Know / No Opinion |
Margin of Error |
AK |
33.20% |
48% |
18.80% |
5% |
AL |
30.90% |
53.30% |
15.80% |
2% |
AR |
37.50% |
47% |
15.50% |
3% |
AZ |
38.80% |
45.60% |
15.60% |
2% |
CA |
53% |
32.20% |
14.80% |
1% |
CO |
43.50% |
39% |
17.50% |
2% |
CT |
47.20% |
36.30% |
16.50% |
3% |
DC |
69.80% |
16.60% |
13.60% |
3% |
DE |
47.40% |
37.60% |
15% |
3% |
FL |
43.30% |
43.10% |
13.60% |
1% |
GA |
39% |
45.30% |
15.70% |
2% |
HI |
53.50% |
29% |
17.50% |
4% |
IA |
44.70% |
38.10% |
17.20% |
2% |
ID |
31.80% |
50.60% |
17.60% |
3% |
IL |
51.30% |
32.90% |
15.70% |
2% |
IN |
40.80% |
42.40% |
16.70% |
3% |
KS |
36.90% |
43.30% |
19.80% |
3% |
KY |
38% |
45.50% |
16.40% |
3% |
LA |
35.40% |
49.50% |
15.10% |
2% |
MA |
49.20% |
36.70% |
14.10% |
2% |
MD |
51.90% |
31.50% |
16.60% |
3% |
ME |
40.80% |
42% |
17.20% |
3% |
MI |
42.30% |
40.80% |
16.90% |
2% |
MN |
44.40% |
38.80% |
16.70% |
2% |
MO |
38.30% |
44.80% |
16.90% |
2% |
MS |
31.90% |
54% |
14% |
4% |
MT |
35.40% |
46.50% |
18.10% |
3% |
NC |
38.40% |
46.70% |
14.90% |
2% |
ND |
35% |
46.30% |
18.80% |
3% |
NE |
35.30% |
48.40% |
16.30% |
3% |
NH |
43.30% |
39% |
17.60% |
3% |
NJ |
44.30% |
39.90% |
15.80% |
2% |
NM |
44.80% |
40.10% |
15.10% |
4% |
NV |
43.50% |
42.10% |
14.40% |
3% |
NY |
52.80% |
33.60% |
13.50% |
1% |
OH |
42.40% |
40.40% |
17.20% |
2% |
OK |
34.10% |
47.90% |
17.90% |
2% |
OR |
44.90% |
37.70% |
17.40% |
2% |
PA |
43.40% |
41.70% |
14.90% |
2% |
RI |
48.90% |
35.70% |
15.50% |
3% |
SC |
36.20% |
46.70% |
17% |
2% |
SD |
38.20% |
44.60% |
17.30% |
3% |
TN |
34.20% |
50.20% |
15.60% |
2% |
TX |
38.80% |
43.80% |
17.40% |
1% |
UT |
30.50% |
46.20% |
23.20% |
3% |
VA |
44.60% |
40.10% |
15.30% |
2% |
VT |
54.50% |
30.60% |
14.90% |
3% |
WA |
48.10% |
33.80% |
18.10% |
2% |
WI |
43.40% |
37.90% |
18.70% |
3% |
WV |
28.70% |
53.60% |
17.70% |
3% |
WY |
26.60% |
54.80% |
18.70% |
4% |
Hillary vs. Cruz
Demographic |
Hillary Clinton |
Ted Cruz |
Don't Know / No Opinion |
Margin of Error |
AK |
35.80% |
40.10% |
24.10% |
5% |
AL |
32.20% |
50.50% |
17.30% |
2% |
AR |
37.30% |
47.50% |
15.20% |
3% |
AZ |
39.50% |
43.50% |
17% |
2% |
CA |
51.20% |
32.90% |
15.90% |
1% |
CO |
42.20% |
41.40% |
16.30% |
2% |
CT |
49.40% |
32% |
18.60% |
3% |
DC |
68.50% |
14.50% |
16.90% |
3% |
DE |
47.70% |
36% |
16.30% |
3% |
FL |
44.10% |
40.30% |
15.70% |
1% |
GA |
40.90% |
42.80% |
16.20% |
2% |
HI |
53.40% |
28.60% |
18.10% |
4% |
IA |
43.90% |
39.10% |
17% |
2% |
ID |
31.20% |
53.70% |
15.10% |
3% |
IL |
50.80% |
32.60% |
16.60% |
2% |
IN |
39.70% |
44.80% |
15.50% |
3% |
KS |
35.10% |
47.90% |
17% |
3% |
KY |
39% |
43.10% |
17.90% |
3% |
LA |
36.20% |
45.70% |
18.10% |
2% |
MA |
51.80% |
29.60% |
18.60% |
2% |
MD |
51.60% |
30.90% |
17.40% |
3% |
ME |
41.10% |
39.70% |
19.20% |
3% |
MI |
42.40% |
39.10% |
18.40% |
2% |
MN |
43.50% |
41.20% |
15.30% |
2% |
MO |
35.60% |
45.30% |
19.10% |
2% |
MS |
34.20% |
47.40% |
18.40% |
4% |
MT |
34.70% |
48.10% |
17.20% |
3% |
NC |
39.10% |
44.40% |
16.50% |
2% |
ND |
35% |
47.90% |
17.20% |
3% |
NE |
33.60% |
50.30% |
16.20% |
3% |
NH |
42.80% |
38.90% |
18.20% |
3% |
NJ |
47.10% |
34.30% |
18.60% |
2% |
NM |
43.70% |
38.80% |
17.50% |
4% |
NV |
45.40% |
37.70% |
16.90% |
3% |
NY |
53.30% |
29.90% |
16.80% |
1% |
OH |
41.60% |
41.30% |
17.10% |
2% |
OK |
32.60% |
50.20% |
17.20% |
2% |
OR |
43.40% |
39.60% |
17% |
2% |
PA |
45.70% |
36.80% |
17.50% |
2% |
RI |
48.40% |
33.10% |
18.50% |
3% |
SC |
36.40% |
47.80% |
15.80% |
2% |
SD |
34.50% |
47.50% |
18% |
3% |
TN |
35.80% |
47.40% |
16.80% |
2% |
TX |
36.30% |
48.60% |
15% |
1% |
UT |
27.70% |
55.20% |
17% |
3% |
VA |
43.10% |
41% |
15.90% |
2% |
VT |
52% |
30.80% |
17.20% |
3% |
WA |
46.90% |
36.10% |
17% |
2% |
WI |
42.40% |
40.20% |
17.40% |
3% |
WV |
32% |
47% |
21% |
3% |
WY |
27.20% |
51.90% |
20.90% |
4% |
How did we get these results? Our team used a methodology known as multi-level regression and poststratification to crunch responses from more than 44,000 registered voters with state-level demographics such as gender, income, and education level. See more on our methodology here
Research Design and Data Sources
Since January 1, 2016, Morning Consult has interviewed more than 44,000 registered
voters across the country using large online survey vendors and has asked each respon-
dent who they would support in a series of hypothetical 2016 general election match
ups.2 The interviews were distributed relatively evenly across the three month period,
with about 10,000 registered voters contacted in January, about 10,000 registered vot-
ers in February, about 20,000 registered voters in March and about 4,000 registered
voters in the first week of April. Morning Consult will interview hundreds of thousands
of additional voters between now and November 2016. The surveys included about 30
demographic questions, along with a series of questions on the presidential primary
and general elections.3
We develop state-level estimates from our national survey data by utilizing a statistical
technique known as multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP).
Responses to the general election vote choice question are modeled via multilevel regression as a function of both individual level and state-level variables. Our models use age, gender, and education as individual level predictor variables.
Presidential election models typically utilize a combination of state-level economic data, current voter sentiment, and historical elections to make predictions (Fair, 1978). For our state-level variables, therefore, we chose variables that may influence state-level vote choice such as the percent change in state gross domestic product (GDP),4 state unemployment rates, state median household income, and state-level outcomes from 2012 Presidential election.
It is interesting that Cruz does marginally worse in the Electoral College than Trump against Hillary, given that in national polls Cruz does a bit better against Hillary than Trump. Cruz does not translate as well to the individual states, apparently.