What follows is a discussion of what will happen should Hillary Clinton get an outright win in the pledged delegate race (ie more than 2026) but not as many pledged delegates as 2383 — the total needed (including superdelegates) to claim the nomination.
41 days. That’s how many days there are between the final primary in DC on June 14, 2016 and the start of the democratic convention in Philadelphia on July 25, 2016. 41 Days where Bernie Sanders is proposing that he will be able to explain the reason why he will still have an active campaign for the presidency despite his opponent (in this scenario) having won the pledged delegate race and having enough superdelegate support to claim the title “presumptive nominee”.
I’ve written before why there will not be a contested democratic nomination, however Senator Sanders’ campaign continues to argue that they will take it to the convention. So I thought I would elaborate on what exactly would happen during those 41 days between the DC primary and the DNC convention. Firstly, under the scenario that the Sanders campaign is anticipating, ie Hillary Clinton ends up with the majority of pledged delegates, she is likely to achieve the majority of pledged delegates (2026) on the day California votes on June 7th. When that happens she will have the support of enough superdelegates to say that she has above 2383 delegates supporting her, enough to make her the presumptive nominee. Headlines are likely to be similar to what they were in early June of 2008 when Barack Obama, with the majority of pledged delegates plus enough superdelegates to get to the majority of all delegates claimed the nomination.
Hillary Clinton is likely to finish in a stronger position than Barack Obama did in 2008, and yet in early June 2008 there was no doubt in the media that he would be the nominee.
So those 41 days are likely to begin with Hillary Clinton already having given a speech rightfully claiming the nomination, as Barack Obama did in 2008. During those 41 days a few things are likely to happen.
- On one of those days, if needed, Hillary Clinton will be able to concretely demonstrate she has enough superdelegate support to be the nominee, for example by releasing a simple letter signed by hundreds of superdelegates stating they will vote for her at the convention.
- On one of those days, Elizabeth Warren, if she hadn’t already, is likely to endorse Hillary Clinton and call for party unity.
- On one of those days, Joe Biden is likely to endorse Hillary Clinton and call for party unity.
- On one of those days, perhaps the same as the day of the Joe Biden endorsement, Hillary Clinton will travel to the White House to accept the endorsement of Barack Obama.
- On all of those days, Bernie Sanders will struggle to keep the support of congresspeople who have endorsed him, such as Jeff Merkley, Raul Grijalva and Keith Ellison, who all will face questions about why the candidate they support is still fighting the presumptive nominee, despite the voting being over.
- On all of those days, Bernie Sanders will have to somehow give an explanation as to how he could possibly be the nominee if he has mathematically lost and the party leaders have coalesced around the person who has won the most pledged delegates and the most votes.
- On none of those days, in short, will there be any doubt that Hillary Clinton will be the nominee.
- On none of those days will the media treat the Sanders campaign as anything other than the campaign that finished second. And that will be brutal.
Consider these headlines from May of 2008, when the primaries had not yet finished and where Hillary Clinton was much closer to the lead than Bernie Sanders is now.
Hillary Agonistes: Why Doesn't She Concede? — May 14, 2008
Hillary enters death-with-dignity phase — May 12, 2008
Hillary Clinton, Fairy Princess — May 2, 2008
Pundits Declare the Race Over — May 8, 2008
Clinton's Options Seem to Dwindle — May 7, 2008
These are but a sample of the headlines generated by the media before Barack Obama had secured enough pledged and superdelegates to claim the nomination. Of course we don’t know what the media would have said had Hillary Clinton decided not to concede the nomination and instead go to the convention. We don’t know because Hillary Clinton looked at the political situation, signaled that she would end her campaign the day after Obama claimed victory on the final primary day and formally conceded three days later. Surely, the media will be harsher on Bernie Sanders, having lost the pledged delegates race in 2016, than it was on Hillary Clinton in 2008 before she had actually lost the pledged delegate race. Every interview with Bernie Sanders will be met with extreme skepticism if Bernie tried to claim he could somehow still be the nominee. How many of those 41 days would he be able to maintain his credibility and dignity in the face of cold hard reality?
I reckon not many. Instead, Bernie Sanders will be faced with the choice of impossibly arguing that he could still be the nominee on the one hand, and suspending his campaign on the other. Some have argued that Bernie has less motivation to choose the latter path than Hillary did in 2008 because he has less ties to the democratic party and so may not be concerned about burning bridges. That may be true, but there is one thing he cares a lot more about than the democratic party — and that’s his platform. He will be faced with the choice of causing a contentious atmosphere that could lead to him being partially blamed in the case Hillary loses the general, or accepting the prominent convention speaking role he will almost certainly be offered and the role of being the conscience of the party in pushing it inevitably towards the causes he espouses, such as reducing income inequality, expanding healthcare for all, legalizing marijuana, and ending the death penalty. Positions which the majority of democrats already agree with and will only become more politically achievable in subsequent elections. A third option he could seek is simply having his delegates counted on the roll call, knowing that he will lose. But I think there will be two stark choices before him,
- to go down fighting, alienating his natural allies and risk being blamed by the democratic party should things not go well in the fall.
- to do the pragmatic thing and recognize electoral defeat but by working with the presumptive nominee, protect the advancement of causes dear to his heart and which will very likely form the platform of a democratic presidential nominee sometime in the nearish future.
To me that choice matrix is no choice at all, and I believe that Bernie Sanders has the dignity and frankly, common sense, to put aside his pride and accept his defeat as Hillary Clinton did eight years ago.
Of course, if the roles were reversed, Hillary should concede — but she’s already proved that she would by doing so in 2008 when she found herself in the position that Bernie is contemplating.