Can somebody please tell me what the hell is going on in politics today, especially in the Republican party? Everybody and their mother is screaming about the system being “rigged”. Rigged how? People are acting as if the Presidency of the United States was being decided in some smoke filled room. Nothing could be farther from the truth. What’s being decided here is who the actual nominees will be chosen by each party to run for President.
Just a quick reminder. Both the Democratic and the Republican parties are private entities, almost like a corporation. They are subject to FEC laws in terms of voting only in a general election, as well as any applicable FEC laws regarding financing and Super PAC’s. Federal law does not require states to hold primaries. This is the prerogative of the individual states parties, it’s their party. This is why in the case of Kentucky, Rand Paul was able to tinker the system with a large cash payout to change the primary rules in the state of Kentucky to allow him to run for President, and yet not have to give up his Senate seat, as required by state law because his name was not appearing twice on the same ballot. Howz that working out for ya Randy? That’s how states like Colorado and Wyoming are able to bypass the expensive caucus or primary process altogether and simply hold a complicated precinct, county and state convention process to choose delegates directly.
It’s not like there isn’t historical precedent for this. We have a red headed stepchild in this country called the “Electoral College”. And it dates all the way back to the constitutional convention. The founding fathers were very rightly worried about the pitfalls of a purely populist election process.
One idea was to have the Congress choose the president. This idea was rejected, however, because some felt that making such a choice would be too divisive an issue and leave too many hard feelings in the Congress. Others felt that such a procedure would invite unseemly political bargaining, corruption, and perhaps even interference from foreign powers. Still others felt that such an arrangement would upset the balance of power between the legislative and executive branches of the federal government.
A second idea was to have the State legislatures select the president. This idea, too, was rejected out of fears that a president so beholden to the State legislatures might permit them to erode federal authority and thus undermine the whole idea of a federation.
A third idea was to have the president elected by a direct popular vote. Direct election was rejected not because the Framers of the Constitution doubted public intelligence but rather because they feared that without sufficient information about candidates from outside their State, people would naturally vote for a "favorite son" from their own State or region. At worst, no president would emerge with a popular majority sufficient to govern the whole country. At best, the choice of president would always be decided by the largest, most populous States with little regard for the smaller ones.
There was another more insidious reason for the electoral college. In the early years, with a population of only 4,000,000 citizens, the founding fathers worried that a foreign influence, say the King of England, or France or Spain could dispatch a secret army to spread around enough cash to eligible voters to “buy” the Presidency for a candidate secretly loyal to them. Even back then, our hearty founders were smart enough to have a good, strong suspicion of politicians. In later years, as the Republic grew, and the chance of foreign intervention to “buy” a Presidency receded, it still provided a firewall. It provided that even if a candidate won a handful of mega populated states, say New York, New Jersey, California, Illinois, Ohio and Michigan, which comprise a vast majority of population votes, they could not win the election simply because the votes of the other, less populated states such as Hawaii, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Montana and North Dakota didn’t have enough votes to matter. This was a buffer to ensure that the will of all of the people was consulted and considered.
Let’s be honest here. This whole primary kerfluffle, both on the Democratic side, and the Republican side is not picking a President. It is two privately held entities, choosing who will run for President, and they are free to set up the rules as they choose for that process. And the vast majority of these rules, on either side are not anything new. Hell, the origin of caucuses goes all the way back to a series of “town and county town halls” held in Pennsylvania to slate delegates all the way back in 1812! For more than half of our history, there were no primaries, the candidates were chosen in the infamous “smoke filled” hotel rooms and foist upon us, with no input needed from the little people. But now, in this “winter of discontent”, these rules are being challenged by the great unwashed, crashing up against the gates of Versailles.
On the Democratic side, it is Bernie Sanders who is railing against the wicked and corrupt “Super Delegates” that are stealing the nomination from him. This is to be expected, he’s trailing, and running out of time. But there are a couple of problems with this. First of all, Bernie knew these rules when he signed up to fight the good fight. And fight the good fight he has. Make no mistake about it, Bernie Sanders has fundamentally changed the face of the Democratic party. His Herculean small donor fundraising, the passion and fresh blood he has infused into the party, the resonance of his populist message has fundamentally changed the arc of the Democratic party. Win or lose, he will continue to push the Democratic party back to it’s social issue roots. And thank God for that, it is long overdue.
Secondly, he is railing against a system that was, at least theoretically, set up to protect him. The Super Delegates are a way for him to sweep up support from individual counties and congressional districts that went heavily to him, even though he may have lost the state wide vote. Will they actually do that? Mebbe not. But the system was set up to at least potentially keep the city of New York from deciding things for the entire state.
Thirdly, he’s trailing. Hillary Clinton leads in states won, pledged delegates and popular votes cast by a significant margin. I live in Vegas, and we have an age old axiom out here, “everybody loves a winner”. Go into any casino sports book, if there’s a favorite, the heavy money is on it. Why would Super Delegates not want to put their surfboard in the curl of the winning wave?
Now, the Republican side, excuse my French is a complete Mongolian cluster fuck. Donald Trump is ahead in states won by over a 2-1 margin. He is ahead in pledged delegates by more than 200, and he is just over 2,000,000 million popular votes ahead of his closest rival. Since when does a leading candidate rail against his own party apparatus for trying to screw him when he’s leading?!? But Donald J. Trump is also a brilliant tactician in the Bill Gates, Steve Zuckerberg “I don’t know where this is going, but fuck it, let’s ride” school of politics. He already knows that both the odds and the system are stacked against him. But, his whole campaign is built on insurgency, rallying the “little guy” who’s gotten screwed all this time, and he is mobilizing them with the prospect of getting screwed in Cleveland to put pressure on the RNC to give him his just due. In a year when everybody is pissed off with, and upset with “The Man”, this is brilliant tactical warfare. Keep them on the defensive, constantly remind them that their own candidates can’t even crack 20%. Use a mass uprising to force them to bend to the “will of the people”.
As Bernie Sanders likes to say, “Let’s be perfectly clear here”. I have absolutely no doubt that if Hillary Clinton is the nominee, Bernie Sanders will publicly support her. Will he do as Hillary Clinton did in 2008, swallow his disappointment, and with a full throat endorse her and work his ass off for her, and with her other down ticket candidates? Only time will tell. But Donald Trump is already tacitly threatening physical violence in the streets of Cleveland if he doesn’t get his way in July. Let’s make this simple. This is politics. It’s rough and tumble. It’s nasty. It’s vindictive, and it’s ugly. At times it’s filthy and personally disgusting. But the last time I checked, it is not a physical blood sport. Pray God, let’s keep it that way.
Thanks as always for reading!