AZ-01: The Democratic group House Majority PAC announced two new fall ads reservations on Monday, and they committed a hefty $1.132 million to the Phoenix media market. (See our WI-08 item for information about the other reservation.) The group is almost certainly committing resources to defending Arizona’s 1st District, an open seat that Romney carried 50-48: The only other potentially competitive House seat in the Phoenix market is the 9th, but Democratic incumbent Kyrsten Sinema doesn’t have any credible GOP challengers yet. Ad reservations can be scaled back or canceled, but HMP is signaling that they’re expecting a very competitive race here.
Tom O'Halleran, a former Republican state legislator, only faces minimal opposition in the late August Democratic primary, and national Democrats have already consolidated behind him. O'Halleran initially struggled with fundraising, but he upped his game over the past few months. O'Halleran hauled in $252,000 from January to March, a lot better than the $143,000 he brought in from October to December, and he has $330,000 in the bank. Back in February, the DCCC added O'Halleran to their “Emerging Races” list, a sign that while they felt O'Halleran had potential, he wasn’t where he needed to get into the more-elite “Red to Blue” program. However, HMP seems to be convinced that he’s worth spending big for.
It’s far from clear who will be O'Halleran’s GOP foe. Pinal Sheriff Paul Babeu has released polls showing him with big leads over his primary foes, but Babeu has earned a ton of awful headlines. Most notably, Babeu was exposed in a home video speaking warmly about the abusive treatment of students a school for troubled youth he once ran had engaged in—after long denying he ever had any knowledge of the abuse. Babeu’s initially strong fundraising also leveled off in early 2016. Babeu brought in just $148,000 for the quarter, less than half of what he took in three months before. Babeu ended up spending most of that cash, and he has $259,000 in the bank.
Even if the GOP avoids nominating someone with Babeu’s baggage, none of the other contenders are exactly awesome. There’s wealthy rancher Gary Kiehne, who proclaimed during his 2014 campaign “if you look at all the fiascos that have occurred, 99 percent of them have been by Democrats pulling their guns out and shooting people.” Kiehne barely raised anything from donors but thanks to some past self-funding, his $514,000 warchest is larger than any of his rivals.
State Sen. Carlyle Begay only joined the GOP a few months ago, and his new party’s donors don’t seem to be in any hurry to embrace him. Begay raised just $40,000, and has about that much in the bank. Ex-Secretary of State Ken Bennett, who took a distant fourth place in the 2014 gubernatorial primary, also hasn’t raised much money. Bennett hauled in just $80,000 for the quarter, and he has $196,000 on hand.
Veteran Wendy Rogers brought in an okay $145,000, and she has $101,000 on-hand. However, Rogers badly lost to Sinema in a different district during the 2014 GOP wave, so she’s not exactly the GOP’s ideal contender. State House Speaker David Gowan raised a similar $169,000, and he has $238,000 on-hand. Gowan recently earned some negative attention after he required reporters to undergo background checks if they wanted to cover the state House; Gowan soon backed down. Republican primary voters probably won’t see Gowan picking a fight with the media as anything but an asset, though Gowan barely represents any of the 1st District in the legislature.
It’s really hard to say who would be the strongest GOP contender out of this pretty meh lot, though it’s probably not Babeu at least. Daily Kos Elections currently rates the general as a Tossup.