FiveThirtyEight's latest pledged delegate count has Clinton ahead by +206.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
The Green Papers has Clinton ahead by +210. The difference between the two is, TGP hasn't reallocated NV and FiveThirtyEight has in their count.
www.thegreenpapers.com/…
I believe these two sources have been the most thorough in their counts.
1,647 pledged delegates are left to be allocated. Using FiveThirtyEight's slightly smaller lead, Clinton only needs 43.8% (721) of those delegates. In other words, starting tomorrow in New York, Senator Sanders will have to keep Clinton under 43.8% of the vote the rest of the way.
After New York, there will be 1,400 pledged delegates remaining or 65.4% of the total delegates allocated.
To put this in perspective, 65.2% of the pledged delegates had been awarded in 2008 by the D.C. primary and then Senator Obama lead Clinton 1199.5 - 1122.5.
Clinton was unable to overcome a much smaller 77 delegate lead.
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Let’s take look at a couple of scenarios for tomorrow’s contest in New York. Keep in mind, these examples could be off a couple of delegates either way depending on district allocation.
Right now Senator Sanders needs 56.3% of the remaining delegates to win.
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Clinton wins New York by +10, she would net roughly 25 delegates. 136-111. Adding this delegate split to their current totals, Sanders would need 58.3% of the remaining delegates. He would realistically need to win 58.5 - 41.5 the rest of the way.
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Clinton wins New York by +6, she would net roughly 15 delegates. 131-116. Adding this delegate split to their current totals, Sanders would need 57.95% of the remaining delegates. He would realistically need to win 58 - 42 the rest of the way.
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As you can see by these two examples, Senator Sanders would fall further behind his current pace.
This is the reality of our proportional delegate system. This isn't based on CT that claims the media is in on the fix, because several different sources have different totals. This is an utterly ridiculous CT based argument by this author and there is really no other way to describe his piece.
This is all about math, pure and simple.
As we move along in this process, we are running out of delegates to allocate. This makes it that much more difficult for a comeback, when you’re behind by over 200 delegates. Ask then Senator Clinton, when she was behind by just 77 delegates.