Finally a fresh Rhode Island poll has arrived, in time for Tuesday’s vote.
Brown University poll of Rhode Island: Hillary 43%, Bernie 34%
Hillary leads Bernie by 9% in Rhode Island
PROVIDENCE, R.I. [Brown University] — A new public opinion survey by Brown University’sTaubman Center for American Politics and Policy finds that among likely voters in Tuesday’s presidential election primaries, Hillary Clinton maintains a lead over Bernie Sanders while Donald Trump leads John Kasich and Ted Cruz.
The poll surveyed a random sample of 600 registered Rhode Island voters who are likely to vote in the presidential primaries. It was conducted April 19 to 21 and has an overall margin of error of 4 percent.
Hillary is ahead of Bernie by 9% and looks poised to win Rhode Island. At this point it looks somewhat likely that Hillary sweeps all 5 states on Tuesday.
However, no complacency allowed, get out to vote, act as if Hillary were 5 points behind. Furthermore, the undecided number is relatively high, at 16%, so the allocation of the undecideds will be important on Tuesday.
In the Democratic primary race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 43 to 34 percent with 16 percent undecided. Sanders leads among voters under the age of 45, with 48 percent favoring him to Clinton’s 34 percent. Clinton claims 52 percent of voters age 65 and older, with 23 percent for Sanders. Women strongly favor Clinton, at 47 percent versus 30 percent for Sanders. Among men, Clinton received 39 percent of the likely vote to Sanders’ 38 percent. Clinton’s strongest support lies with African American voters, at 63 percent, to 13 percent for Sanders. A majority of Latino voters favor Clinton, 55 percent to 36 percent for Sanders. Among white voters, Clinton’s lead is less decisive: 42 percent to Sanders’ 35 percent.
Bernie wins young voters, but Hillary wins with voters over 45 decisively. The gender gap is very pronounced: Hillary polls better with women to the tune of a 17% gap with Bernie, while she polls better with men by only 1%, a major gender gap. With AAs in the state Hillary outpolls Bernie by 50%, 63% to 13%. Hispanics prefer Hillary by almost 20%, 55% to 36%.
Here are the crosstabs of this poll:
news.brown.edu/…
Things are looking very good for Tuesday if you are Hillary. Pennsylvania polls point to a high double digit win there, Maryland polls point to a blowout victory there (at least a 20% win, probably more.) Delaware and Connecticut also look very good. Now we have evidence that Rhode Island is also looking good for Hillary. A sweep of all 5 states might be the result on Tuesday.
NATIONAL HISPANIC VOTE
Also, pivoting to the general election for a moment, Trump looks to be in big trouble nationwide against Hillary in a new national poll with Hispanics/Latinos conducted by LatinoDecisions, and also in Florida, Nevada and Colorado in separate polling, as the numbers for Hillary with Hispanics across the board against Trump look stellar:
Hillary beats Trump nationally by 65%, 76% to 11%.
For reference, Obama won Hispanics/Latinos in 2008 by 36% — 67% to 31%, and by 44% in 2012 — 71% to 27%. If Hillary can expand the Hispanic vote by more than 20% (or even just 10%) we have a great shot at not just winning the general election, but winning it very big.
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Here is the Hispanic vote on a historical level. A Hillary vs. Trump battle looks like it will blow these numbers up and give us historical Hispanic turnout and votes.
We have a great chance to beat historic numbers with Hispanics in a Hillary vs. Trump battle this November. Even besting the historic numbers with Hispanics Bill Clinton pulled in in his 1996 re-election. Given that 12.5 Million Hispanics are expected to vote in November, that is very encouraging to see for the Democratic party’s prospects of winning the election, and also for down-ticket consideration.
In addition to the national picture Latino Decisions also tested 3 states for Hispanic preferences, Florida, Nevada, and Colorado.
The three individual polls can be found here:
www.latinodecisions.com/…
Here is a breakdown of the Florida results, probably the most pivotal battleground state for November, and with 33 EVs the biggest prize among so-called purple states.
America’s Voice/LD 2016 Florida Survey, April 2016
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The write-up in the Miami New-Times about this latest polling data:
Hillary Clinton Leads Donald Trump by 51 Points Among Florida Hispanics
It wasn't that long ago when Republicans could find a strong base of support among Florida's Hispanic population. Both Jeb and George W. Bush enjoyed a majority of Latino voters' support in their runs for governor and president. According to at least one exit poll, even Rick Scott had a small lead among Hispanic voters in his first run for governor in 2010.
The Hispanic community in Florida is far more diverse than it is in the rest of America, which makes the Latino vote harder to court with a one-size-fits-all approach and more difficult to measure.
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Republicans have done relatively well with Hispanics/Latinos/Latinas in Florida, although in recent years that has changed.
www.pewhispanic.org/…
Obama carried Florida’s Hispanic vote 60% to 39%, an improvement over his 57% to 42% showing in 2008. Also, Hispanics made up 17% of the Florida electorate this year, up from 14% in 2008.
Obama won Hispanics in Florida 57% to 42% in 2008, a 15% Hispanic gap.
He won Hispanics 60% to 39% in 2012, a 21% Hispanic gap.
Now, as of today, we are looking at a current 69% to 18% race between Hillary and Trump, a 51% gap in Florida.
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Back to the Miami New-Times writeup:
Well, it appears Donald Trump has almost single-handedly undone any semblance of competitiveness Republicans had in the state among that group. According to a new American Voices poll of Hispanic voters in Florida, Hillary Clinton would wipe the floor with Donald Trump by 69 to 18 percent. That's an astounding 51-point margin.
Clinton appears to be especially popular among Hispanic Florida voters, while Trump appears to be almost historically unpopular, but both Democratic candidates still have wide margins over any of the Republican candidates in the race.
Here's the breakdown:
Clinton vs. Trump: 69 to 18 percent Clinton vs. Cruz: 58 to 36 percent Sanders vs. Trump: 64 to 20 Sanders vs. Cruz: 49 to 40
Those numbers include both definite backers as well as voters who lean that way.
Here's the favorable/unfavorable split for each candidate:
Clinton: 59/37
Sanders: 48/35
Trump: 12/84
Cruz: 41/45
Kasich: 34/36
The unpopularity of the Republican candidates — Trump in particular — could have effects on down-ballot races as well. The poll found 46 percent said the Democratic Party "truly cares about the Latino community." Only 22 percent say the same of the Republican party, while 68 percent say Trump's views on immigration render them less likely to vote for Republicans in general.
With Trump against Hillary down ticket races will be strongly effected, both nationally and in battle ground states.
Trump is extremely toxic with the Hispanic community. His favorable rating among Hispanics nationwide and in states like Florida is extremely low:
National picture:
Trump 9% favorable to 87% unfavorable with Hispanics on a national level, you can’t get any worse than that. And with 12.5 Million Hispanics expected to vote in 2016 that is very bad news for the Republican party and its likely nominee.
Hillary benefits from her strongly pro-Immigration views when it comes to Hispanic voter preferences:
Hillary’s (and also Sander’s) views on Immigration are seen as a reason to make it more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee, while both Trump’s and Cruz’ Immigration views are strong reasons to vote against either of them, more pronounced with Trump but also strongly present with Cruz.
The views of the Democratic standard bearers on Immigration (Hillary as the nominee the most, but also Sanders’ coming in second in the race) contrasted to the views of the Republican front runners and standard bearers has a profound effect on how the two parties are viewed on Immigration issues by Hispanic voters:
In the views of Hispanics the GOP does not care or is hostile to the Hispanic community to the tune of 73%. Only 14% state the party cares for them. Contrast to Democrats who have 53% of “Truly Cares” vs. ony 12% as hostile to them.
And Hispanics detect a more recent turn to hostility towards them from the GOP:
Hispanics believe that in recent years Republicans have become more hostile to them to the tune of 42%. Only 15% believe the Republican party has been more welcoming to them in recent years. The Democratic Party is seen as more welcoming in recent years to the tune of 47%, only 10% believe it has been more hostile. It appears that this election year provides a historic opportunity for the Democratic Party to make the Hispanic vote almost as reliably Democratic as the African-American vote has become.
Individually, Trump’s and Cruz’ views on Immigration compared to those of both Hillary and Bernie are making Hispanics more excited to vote in this upcoming election than they were voting in 2012:
In 2012 11.2 Million Hispanics voted. It is expected that in 2016 that number rises to 12.5 Million, an increase of around 12%. If we can get close to the numbers we had in 2012 again with Hispanics (+44%) we win this election easily. If Hispanics vote for us anywhere near the numbers shown currently with Hispanics (+65%) we win this election in a major rout.