There’s a whole lot of talk out there about how big the blowout will be when Clinton beats Trump this fall. Frankly, I just don’t see where people are getting this. Anyone who doesn’t think the GOP won’t unite behind Trump isn’t thinking about what’s at stake for the GOP. All the voter suppression, the discriminatory laws in the states, the governorships, the legislatures… Do you really think the Oligarchs are going to abandon all of that because the base has chosen about the most unqualified person ever to run for the presidency? Hell no! With one appointment to the Supreme Court they could lose decades of gains. The Republican fear and hatred of Clinton will far outweigh their disgust with Trump.
But we’re suppose to be the fact based party, so lets look at some facts.
7%! Does 7% in April look like a blowout?! In July 1988 a Gallup poll showed Dukakis leading Bush 55-38. The GOP is in the craziest primary fight in decades. But at no time in history has there been such a division between the parties, and you can count on Republicans rallying around Trump, or rather rallying against Clinton and narrowing the national polls even more.
But let’s look at some more data. PPP released a poll on Ohio yesterday, and some of the crosstabs are disturbing.
If the candidates for President this fall were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton 45% ..................Donald Trump 42% ........................... Not sure 14%
That’s within the margin of error. How in the world can we be talking about blowouts when Ohio is within the margin of error?
Let’s look at some more data:
Gender
Women Men
Clinton 52% 37%
Trump 34% 51%
Not Sure 15% 12%
Party
Democrat Republican Independent / Other
Clinton 74% 14% 42%
Trump 15% 72% 39%
Not Sure 10% 14% 20%
Race
White African American Other
Clinton 40% 73% 52%
Trump 46% 15% 28%
Not Sure 13% 11% 20%
A quick look at these numbers and you can see Trump wins with men by about the same number Clinton wins with women, He loses Republicans about the same as Clinton loses Dems, and if Trump is winning 15% of the AA vote, we’ve got some real trouble.
With all the talk about how big of a disaster Trump would be for the GOP, why isn’t it reflected in the polls? It sure looks like a lot of Republicans love to whine about Trump, but when it gets down to deciding who the next president should be, they’re rallying around him like they’ve done for GOP candidates in the past.
I’m not alone in beginning to worry that Democrats are spiking the football before the game has even started.
This has been the craziest GOP primary we’ve ever seen. And those of us who follow politics closely (lack a real life), are asking ourselves, how in the world can anyone vote for Trump? Remember, the American public voted for Nixon, Reagan, and GWB, TWICE! And Nixon was by far the best of the 3.
It would be a disaster for us to take this election lightly, especially when we consider what’s at stake. The polls will go up and down, and the election will probably be decided by an event we haven’t even seen yet, but in the end I’m betting this race comes down to a 2 or 3% final gap.
So let’s celebrate our potential, but understand the hard work that lies ahead in order to avoid the world wide disaster that a President Trump would be.