. . . Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.
- Nate Silver, 6/16/15
For, you see, so many out-of-the-way things had happened lately, that Alice had begun to think that very few things indeed were really impossible.
- Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland
Opinions and analyses from The Left about Trump have varied wildly, perhaps because the candidate himself varies wildly. From the scrum however, there are several themes that repeat: Trump is not a serious candidate, and his lack of qualifications preclude any serious discussion of how he might fill the Oval Office. It is more appropriate to joke about Trump than to seriously consider how to campaign against him. His nomination is a boon to Democrats because there can be no serious doubt that Hillary will sweep the floor with him. Not serious, not serious, not serious.
As has become clearer today, this election is truly abnormal and the conventional rules are not working. A corollary to this is that Trump can win. He can beat Hillary (or Bernie) and he can become our next president. President Trump. The urgent need is to take him as seriously (and perhaps more seriously) as we would have for Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush, and as we did for Mitt Romney and John McCain.
Here are my thoughts on various statements on Trump:
1. Trump can’t win because [insert logic] or [insert conventional political wisdom].
Response: We are in a wormhole. The laws of space-time, logic and conventional political wisdom have been suspended. Stop thinking the way you thought, and start thinking the way people who voted for Trump are thinking. Don’t make fun of those people. Think of ways to reach them with the message that Democrats take their concerns seriously, and want to make their lives better.
2. Trump is a [racist/misogynist/homophobe, etc.]
Response: Activists on The Left live in kind of a bubble in this area. To many of us, establishing that a person is a racist cuts off the need for further conversation about the person’s positions. To many people outside of this bubble, racism, misogyny and homophobia are features, not bugs. Many others simply don’t care.
3. Hillary (or Bernie!) will kill Trump in the debates.
Response: See #1 above. We may be living in a time when the Democratic candidate can espouse a cogent, nuanced and “presidential” position during a debate, and Trump would be deemed the winner by simply responding, “That’s stupid.” And Ted Cruz’s fabled debating skills didn’t help him against Trump.
4. Trump has been a terrible businessman, he’s driven companies into bankruptcy, etc.
Response: For many, this only focuses them on the fact that Trump has a lot of experience that other candidates lack in running businesses and paying employees’ salaries, and every business has its ups and downs.
5. Trump has no way of actually delivering most of his promises.
Response: True, but look at it from the perspective of voters acting out of anger, fear and disillusionment: All politicians are lying to us, so even if Trump is lying that doesn’t make him worse than any of the others who are running, and at least he’s saying the right things. Then look at it from the perspective of voters who simply believe what he is saying and who lack the education, experience or sophistication to understand why it isn’t possible. We need to do real thinking about how to reach these voters in a way they can both understand and trust.
I believe, and will continue to believe, that either Hillary or Bernie has a better chance of winning the presidency as our nominee than Trump. Certainly either of them would be a better president than Trump in innumerable ways. But I don’t believe this outcome is guaranteed. Trump can win, and anyone who doesn’t want that to happen needs to start thinking differently, and much more seriously, about how to stop him.