Sen Sanders’ 5 point win in Indiana netted him 5 pledged delegates, however his challenge to win the nomination got even harder, as prior to Indiana he needed to win just over 64% of the pledged delegates to attain a majority, and now he needs to win slightly more than 65%. We’re at the part of the race, and with the position that Hillary is in, that close results are essentially meaningless. Consider that if the results were flipped and Hillary had won Indiana by 5 pledged delegates, Bernie would need 65.7% of remaining pledged delegates instead of the 65.2% he needs now. Bernie needs massive victories in delegate rich states, a feat that he has not been able to accomplish except for caucus states (with Washington being the only caucus state of any significant size). The proportional allocation of pledged delegates makes it near impossible for Bernie to catch up to Hillary, a fact reflected in Hillary’s decision to spend no ad dollars in Indiana. Needing only 35% of all remaining pledged delegates to secure the majority, Hillary Clinton is on a glide path to the nomination and will have enough pledged and super delegate support to reach the 2383 needed to be the nominee when California votes on June 7th. I expect that she will claim the nomination on that day, and that Bernie Sanders will concede shortly after.
Delegate Race
As usual, all numbers are from The Green Papers (I have Nevada projected at 18-17 due to the results of the county conventions — the Green Papers still has it projected at 20-15).
DATE |
|
PLEDGED DELEGATES |
COOK'S CLINTON TARGET |
COOK'S SANDERS TARGET |
CLINTON TARGET ADJUSTED |
SANDERS TARGET ADJUSTED |
538 CLINTON TARGET |
538 SANDERS TARGET |
538 REVISED CLINTON TARGET |
538 REVISED SANDERS TARGET |
CLINTON RESULT |
SANDERS RESULT |
CLINTON DIFFERENCE FROM COOK'S TARGET |
CLINTON DIFFERENCE FROM 538'S TARGET |
CLINTON TOTAL |
SANDERS TOTAL |
RAW LEAD |
2/1/2016 |
Iowa |
44 |
16 |
28 |
18 |
26 |
18 |
26 |
|
|
23 |
21 |
5 |
5 |
23 |
21 |
CLINTON BY 2 |
2/9/2016 |
New Hampshire |
24 |
9 |
15 |
10 |
14 |
9 |
15 |
|
|
9 |
15 |
-1 |
0 |
32 |
36 |
SANDERS BY 4 |
2/20/2016 |
Nevada |
35 |
16 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
|
|
18 |
17 |
0 |
1 |
50 |
53 |
SANDERS BY 3 |
2/27/2016 |
South Carolina |
53 |
27 |
26 |
30 |
23 |
32 |
21 |
|
|
39 |
14 |
9 |
7 |
89 |
67 |
CLINTON BY 22 |
3/1/2016
|
Alabama |
53 |
27 |
26 |
30 |
23 |
35 |
18 |
|
|
44 |
9 |
14 |
9 |
133 |
76 |
CLINTON BY 187
|
American Samoa |
6 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
137 |
78 |
Arkansas |
32 |
13 |
19 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
14 |
|
|
22 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
159 |
88 |
Colorado |
66 |
30 |
36 |
33 |
33 |
30 |
36 |
|
|
25 |
41 |
-8 |
-5 |
184 |
129 |
Georgia |
102 |
52 |
50 |
57 |
45 |
65 |
37 |
|
|
73 |
29 |
16 |
8 |
257 |
158 |
Massachusetts |
91 |
35 |
56 |
40 |
51 |
41 |
50 |
|
|
46 |
45 |
6 |
5 |
303 |
203 |
Minnesota |
77 |
32 |
45 |
36 |
41 |
30 |
47 |
|
|
31 |
46 |
-5 |
1 |
334 |
249 |
Oklahoma |
38 |
16 |
22 |
18 |
20 |
18 |
20 |
|
|
17 |
21 |
-1 |
-1 |
351 |
270 |
Tennessee |
67 |
30 |
37 |
33 |
34 |
33 |
34 |
|
|
44 |
23 |
11 |
11 |
395 |
293 |
Texas |
222 |
111 |
111 |
122 |
100 |
126 |
96 |
|
|
147 |
75 |
25 |
21 |
542 |
368 |
Vermont |
16 |
4 |
12 |
5 |
11 |
2 |
14 |
|
|
0 |
16 |
-5 |
-2 |
542 |
384 |
Virginia |
95 |
43 |
52 |
48 |
47 |
52 |
43 |
|
|
62 |
33 |
14 |
10 |
604 |
417 |
3/5/2016
|
Kansas |
33 |
14 |
19 |
16 |
17 |
14 |
19 |
|
|
10 |
23 |
-6 |
-4 |
614 |
440 |
CLINTON BY 192
|
Louisiana |
51 |
26 |
25 |
29 |
22 |
33 |
18 |
|
|
37 |
14 |
8 |
4 |
651 |
454 |
Nebraska |
25 |
10 |
15 |
11 |
14 |
10 |
15 |
|
|
10 |
15 |
-1 |
0 |
661 |
469 |
3/6/2016 |
Maine |
25 |
9 |
16 |
10 |
15 |
10 |
15 |
|
|
9 |
16 |
-1 |
-1 |
670 |
485 |
CLINTON BY 185 |
3/8/2016
|
Michigan |
130 |
55 |
75 |
62 |
68 |
63 |
67 |
|
|
63 |
67 |
1 |
0 |
733 |
552 |
CLINTON BY 209
|
Mississippi |
36 |
18 |
18 |
20 |
16 |
23 |
13 |
|
|
32 |
4 |
12 |
9 |
765 |
556 |
3/12/2016 |
Northern Marianas |
6 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
769 |
558 |
CLINTON BY 210 |
3/15/2016
|
Florida |
214 |
94 |
120 |
105 |
109 |
116 |
98 |
|
|
141 |
73 |
36 |
25 |
910 |
631 |
CLINTON BY 312
|
Illinois |
156 |
73 |
83 |
81 |
75 |
85 |
71 |
|
|
79 |
77 |
-2 |
-6 |
989 |
708 |
Missouri |
71 |
30 |
41 |
34 |
37 |
36 |
35 |
|
|
36 |
35 |
2 |
0 |
1025 |
743 |
North Carolina |
107 |
54 |
53 |
59 |
48 |
57 |
50 |
|
|
60 |
47 |
1 |
3 |
1085 |
790 |
Ohio |
143 |
60 |
83 |
67 |
76 |
71 |
72 |
|
|
80 |
63 |
13 |
9 |
1165 |
853 |
3/20/2016 |
Democrats Abroad |
13 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6.5 |
7 |
|
|
4 |
9 |
-3 |
-2.5 |
1169 |
862 |
CLINTON BY 307 |
3/22/2016
|
Arizona |
75 |
33 |
42 |
37 |
38 |
34 |
41 |
|
|
42 |
33 |
5 |
8 |
1211 |
895 |
CLINTON BY 284
|
Idaho |
23 |
10 |
13 |
11 |
12 |
9 |
14 |
|
|
5 |
18 |
-6 |
-4 |
1216 |
913 |
Utah |
33 |
12 |
21 |
14 |
19 |
14 |
19 |
|
|
6 |
27 |
-8 |
-8 |
1222 |
940 |
3/26/2016
|
Alaska |
16 |
7 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
|
|
3 |
13 |
-5 |
-4 |
1225 |
953 |
CLINTON BY 216
|
Hawaii |
25 |
13 |
12 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
8 |
17 |
-6 |
-4 |
1233 |
970 |
Washington |
101 |
44 |
57 |
49 |
52 |
42 |
59 |
|
|
27 |
74 |
-22 |
-15 |
1260 |
1044 |
4/5/2016 |
Wisconsin |
86 |
33 |
53 |
37 |
49 |
38 |
48 |
36 |
50 |
38 |
48 |
1 |
0 |
1298 |
1092 |
CLINTON BY 206 |
4/9/2016 |
Wyoming |
14 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
9 |
3 |
11 |
7 |
7 |
0 |
2 |
1305 |
1099 |
CLINTON BY 206 |
4/19/2016 |
New York |
247 |
127 |
120 |
139 |
108 |
122 |
125 |
119 |
128 |
139 |
108 |
0 |
17 |
1444 |
1207 |
CLINTON BY 237 |
4/26/2016
|
Connectcut |
55 |
22 |
33 |
25 |
30 |
27 |
28 |
24 |
31 |
28 |
27 |
3 |
1 |
1472 |
1234 |
CLINTON BY 289
|
Delaware |
21 |
9 |
12 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
1484 |
1243 |
Maryland |
95 |
45 |
50 |
50 |
45 |
53 |
42 |
52 |
43 |
61 |
34 |
11 |
8 |
1545 |
1277 |
Pennsylvania |
189 |
77 |
112 |
86 |
103 |
93 |
96 |
88 |
101 |
106 |
83 |
20 |
13 |
1651 |
1360 |
Rhode Island |
24 |
9 |
15 |
10 |
14 |
11 |
13 |
8 |
16 |
11 |
13 |
1 |
0 |
1662 |
1373 |
5/3/2016 |
Indiana |
83 |
35 |
48 |
39 |
44 |
39 |
44 |
35 |
48 |
39 |
44 |
0 |
0 |
1701 |
1417 |
CLINTON BY 284 |
TOTALS |
|
|
|
|
1153 |
1151 |
1175 |
1130 |
|
|
1701 |
1417 |
145 |
128 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Even with Bernie’s win yesterday, both candidates met their original delegate targets for Indiana. What’s more, Bernie fell short of the super aggressive targets 538 had devised after Wyoming’s caucus to see if he could get to the majority of pledged delegates — in fact he has fallen short of those aggressive targets in every contest since then.
Delegate Target Surplus
Hillary Clinton’s pledged delegate target surplus remains robust, reflecting her dominant position in the race. A simple way of looking at the delegate target surplus, is that if Hillary’s surplus were 0, it would mean that both candidates are on track for 50% of the pledged delegates according to the model being considered.
Next Up
Next up is Guam on May 7, and West Virginia on May 10, a state that based on its demographics, should be very favorable to Bernie Sanders, and with Hillary’s recent comment that coal jobs are dying off, West Virginia might actually be one of the very few contests remaining where Bernie can get close to that 65% of pledged delegates needed.