Yesterday I did a diary that took an early look at the state of play in the 2016 Senate map. Thankfully nobody called me a moron or ridiculed me, so I thought I’d take a look at the early state of play for the 2016 House of Representatives.
At the current time, to my Irish eye the whole thing is a shagging dogs breakfast. My source for this data is the same as for yesterdays Senate map, 270towin.com which I found to be easy to use and understand, as well as fun since it’s interactive and you can tweak the map as to how you see the races. 270towin.com used the research from University of Virginia professor Larry Sabatos Crystal ball, which can be found here for the leans and projections.
There are several interesting and even tantalizing things to consider here. We’ll start with the basics. At this time there are 227 Republican representatives as opposed to 190 Democrats. Sabato has forecast that there are 207 “safe” Republican seats, and 176 “Safe” Democratic seats. It’s in the middle that things get interesting. The Democrats appear to be in better shape. They have 8 “Likely” seats and 6 “lean” Democratic seats. The Republicans have 14 “likely” seats and 6 “lean” seats. The real key is the “toss ups”. The prognostication shows 18 seats in that category. And guess what? 14 of them are on the GOP side. This seems to show a middle that is mushier on the GOP side than it is on the Democratic side.
There are a myriad of possibilities here. For instance, we start the Democratic side with 176 “safe” seats on our side. Just to be optimistic, let’s say that we hold serve on our “likely” and “lean”seats, pick up 14 of the 18 toss up seats , and pick up oh say, three of the “lean” GOP seats. That takes us up to 207.The permutations are endless, so click on the link and knock yourself out!
But there is an interesting wild card dynamic at work here. And that wild card is one august Donald J Trump. I’m sure that the polling information that Larry Sabato used in his calculations was taken long before Trump sewed up the nomination. I have heard from multiple sources on both MSNBC and CNN that both the RNC and several GOP Super PAC’s are receiving “SOS calls” from congressmen who have seen their internal polling go into the tanker since Trump locked it down, and they want help right now, before they sink too far beneath the surface. This can spell trouble in unexpected places, especially if GOP power donors decide to sit out and not fund the RNC directly, greatly diminishing their ability to assist in the down ballot tickets. Hell, there’s already rumbling out there that say that demographically changed states such as AZ and GA may be in play to actually turn “blue” in this Presidential cycle.
But let’s just start small. Texas has a fledgling but committed “Turn Texas Blue” operation up and running in the state. It is an ambitious operation, but by all projections a long term project. Der Furor could drastically change that. I can’t imagine a more powerful tool in mobilizing, registering, and getting Latino voters out to the polls than a blatant and unrepentant racist. I do not, nor have I ever lived in Texas, but I have a feeling that there are some congressional districts that are “red” not because they are overwhelmingly Republican, but because of low minority voter registration and turnout. Democrats resign themselves to the fact that they are a minority, and don’t bother to show up and vote in a losing effort. A dynamic like Trump could energize them, not only the Democrats and Latinos, but even moderates and independents who feel compelled to stop the maniac. Come election night, there could be some surprises to come out of TX, and please God, let that pinhead Louie Gohmert be one of them!
The same thing holds true for Arizona. This was one of my picks as an obtainable Senate pickup seat in November. I believe that John McCain has finally run his string, his constituents don’t even appear to like him very much anymore. He should have just announced his retirement, and gone from house to house making sure none of his shit was missing. But the same dynamic working in TX could well play into the AZ races. Latino outrage at Trump could lead to an aggressive outreach campaign to register and get Latinos out to vote. Not only would McCain be toast, but some congress critters on the GOP side could be in for a nasty surprise, especially if every, single Democratic candidate ties Trump around their opponents necks like an anchor. Especially effective could be using the phrase “Trump-(opponent name) agenda” at every opportunity.
Places like GA and NC are also fertile ground. Not to be crude, but Hillary Clinton absolutely kneecapped Bernie Sanders in the south with the African American vote. Trumps rhetoric and opinions of African Americans are both arrogant and idiotically condescending. A large scale registration and GOTV drive could not only hand the states to Hillary, but they could affect even congressional races and state races.
Now look, let’s get real here, predictions aside. As they say on Wall Street, “Trees don’t grow to the sky”. And shit don’t happen just because we hope it will. “If wishes were horses, then beggars would ride”. This is going to take effort. That means we are going to have to work our asses off at the local level to make it come true. Registration and GOTV drives. We’ve all got to put skin in the game, even if it’s only donations or phone bank time. But it also means that the DNC is going to have to get off of its fat, bloated ass and pony up! That means you exalted DWS, time to open up the purse strings. Grassroots organizations require funding and advertising to survive and thrive. And the grassroots will be the key to our success in these battleground and insurgent states.
You know what? Fuck carpet bomb t.v. advertising. If the last couple of cycles have shown us nothing else, they have shown us that t.v. advertising is not only expensive, it is incredibly ineffective. Nobody is paying attention to that shit anymore, they’re sick and fed up with it! And, best of all, they have a universal remote to change the channel when it comes on. If Barack Obama and Donald Trump showed us nothing else, it is that Twitter, Facebook and social media blogs are the new format for education and dissemination of information. So, financially support the local candidates, let them run their own targeted ad campaigns, and get those boots on the ground to drive up registration and voter turnout. We have been given a golden opportunity, please let’s not waste it!
Thanks as always for reading!