Let’s look at two parameters — the results of the election, and what Bernie does during the campaign, and evaluate them in terms of advancing Sanders’ agenda.
- Clinton wins easily
- Clinton wins a close one
- Clinton loses
And
- Sanders works hard for Clinton
- Sanders goes through the motions for Clinton
- Sanders actively works against Clinton
Case 1,1
Clinton wins easily, the Senate majority is secure, and Bernie worked hard. Most likely result: Bernie is Budget Committee chair, Hillary views him favorably, Bernie is in a good position to set budget priorities in the Senate with the support of the President. Bernie’s influence: high.
Case 1,2
Clinton wins easily, the Senate majority is secure, and Bernie went through the motions. Most likely result: Bernie is still Budget Committee chair, Hillary has no particular reason to support Bernie, Bernie can try to set budget priorities in the Senate but without the President behind him has less influence. Bernie’s influence: moderate.
Case 1,3
Clinton wins easily, the Senate majority is secure, and Bernie was a thorn in Hillary’s side. Most likely result: The only person with less use for Bernie than Chuck Schumer is Mitch McConnell. Bernie’s influence: tiny
Case 2,1
Clinton wins a close one, the Senate majority is fragile, and Bernie worked hard. Most likely result: Bernie is Budget Committee chair, and Hillary owes him her Presidency, and knows it. On the other hand, it’s hard to get anything progressive through the Senate as every bill needs buy-in from (almost) every Democrat, including the conservaDems. Bernie’s influence: medium-high.
Case 2,2
Clinton wins a close one, the Senate majority is fragile, and Bernie went through the motions. Most likely result: Bernie is still Budget Committee chair, Hillary has no particular reason to support Bernie, and with a fragile majority the conservadems gain outsize influence. Bernie’s influence: small.
Case 2,3
Clinton wins a close one, the Senate majority is fragile, and Bernie was a problem for Hillary. Most likely result: power politics as the Democrats need every Senator which moderates Hillary & Schumer’s quest for vengeance. Bernie has to horse trade just to keep Budget chair, though, and gets Presidential support only when his objectives align with Hillary’s. Bernie’s influence: small.
Case 3,1
Case 3,2
In both of these cases President Trump and Mitch McConnell display all the respect for civility and Senate tradition that we’ve come to expect from them. Bernie is ranking member on Budget and gets a prime position to rail against the horrors inflicted on America. Bernie’s influence: small.
Case 3,3
Trump is President. America is screwed. Bernie helped make that happen. Chuck Schumer treats Bernie like something he scraped off his shoe, and you can’t really blame him. OTOH, President Trump is grateful, to the extent that a narcissist can feel gratitude. Extremely high probability of the Democratic establishment recruiting someone to primary Bernie in 2018. Bernie might very well be more influential caucusing with the Republicans, who will be not at all receptive to any actual progressive ideas. Bernie’s influence: tiny. He might be better off resigning and becoming an activist.
Conclusion
Bernie Sanders has the greatest positive influence as a Senator if he works hard to get President Clinton elected and the Democrats take the Senate comfortably. If he works against her he’d better hope she still wins, which is paradoxical. The best thing for Bernie Sanders, and his agenda, is to earn the gratitude of the next President and have a Democratic majority in the Senate.