It is interesting that two New Yorkers have emerged as the party nominees. Both symbolize much about our great city. Trump, the native, born to wealth, displays a heavy makeup and big hair (white ethnics with money) outer Borough style. Clinton, playing the transplant from the MidWest who arrives and rapidly builds up into something, displays the rich liberal's preference for overpriced modesty. While Trump lives above the store in the City, Clinton resides just north of The Bronx in wealthy Westchester County. The two campaigns can probably see each other from their high rise offices at Pierrepont Plaza in Downtown Brooklyn and Trump Tower in Midtown Manhattan.
The first time (correct me if I'm
wrong) we had two presidential nominees from the same state was Abraham Lincoln for the Republicans vs. Stephen Douglas for the Democrats. Lincoln and Douglas had faced off before as candidates for the Senate in 1858, a contest Douglas won. In the presidential race, Lincoln won their mutual home state. Clearly Lincoln got the better of the legacy stakes in Illinois. Lincoln is all over the place there.
Democrat Alton Parker, who was
the Chief Judge of the New York Court of Appeals when he challenged incumbent New Yorker President Theodore Roosevelt in 1904. The two men couldn't have been more each other's opposite. Roosevelt was born to an old, wealthy Dutch family who had been around these parts since it was New Amsterdam. Parker was a self made man, son of an educated farmer in Upstate New York, which may as well be another state entirely. He worked his way up. Roosevelt was brash, energetic and daring. Parker was cold, conservative, and boring. Beyond his opening and closing speeches, he barely said a word during the campaign. It was a Roosevelt landslide and he carried New York handily for Republicans.
In 1920, Senator Warren Harding
of Ohio, the Republican nominee faced off against Governor James Cox of Ohio, the Democratic nominee. Hows that for high stakes?! Both men had similar profiles as well. Born and raised in small town Ohio. Made their careers in Ohio newspapers. The race was a landslide for Harding. He basically ignored Cox and ran against the unpopular Democratic incumbent Woodrow Wilson. Harding died in office after a couple of years turning in one of the worst presidencies on record. But like the others, he did carry his home state.
I couldn't find any examples of a president being elected who lost his home state. Birth state, yes. But not home state.
In other words, its not looking promising for Trump. Clinton will carry New York handily.