Much has been said about the surprising Survey USA poll that had Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) trouncing Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) in the golden state by 19 percentage points, 57-38. However, a new poll released this evening from the Public Policy Institute (PPI) of California tells a far different story.
According to the poll, Clinton and Sanders are in a dead heat, or virtually tied in California with 46% of respondents supporting Clinton and 44% supporting Sanders and 10% undecided. This result roughly corroborates the results of two other California polls: a FOX poll showing Clinton ahead by the same margin (although their poll had numerous statistical issues), and a Field poll which gave her a 6 point lead.
While Sanders needs a much better result than a near tie in California, roughly a 66-34 blowout (assuming similarly large margins in New Jersey and New Mexico), to hope to catch Clinton in the delegate count, this latest result is an encouraging sign for his campaign which has been slipping in the polls as of late. Indeed, even if Sanders were not to win California by the margin needed to attain the nomination it would, at the very least, significantly strengthen his hand in shaping the party platform when Democrats convene in Philadelphia. That, in and of itself, is hardly insignificant.
Detailed findings from the poll:
- Sanders leads Clinton 66-27 among voters under 45
- Clinton beats Sanders 59-28 among voters over 45
- Men prefer Sanders by a narrow 46-42 margin
- Women support Clinton by a larger margin at 49-42
- Latino voters support Clinton by a modest 52-43 margin
- Sanders trounces Clinton among voters who identify as “very liberal” by 29 points, 64-35
- Clinton easily wins voters who identify as “somewhat liberal” or “moderate” by 54-33 and 55-37 apiece
- White voters support Clinton 47-41
- Clinton leads among black voters
- Sanders leads among Asian voters (although the margin is not specified)
- Registered Democrats break for Clinton by an 8 point margin, 49-41
- Sanders leads among Independents (the margin is not specified here either)
The PPIC president, Mark Baldassare told The Sacramento Bee that, in regards to the poll’s findings “definitely, the race has tightened up”. His statements are backed up by a previous PPIC poll taken in March where Clinton led Sanders by a larger, 7 point margin, at 48-41.
The PPIC poll has a A- rating from FiveThirtyEight.com. This poll was conducted from May 13 through May 22 and surveyed 552 likely Democratic Primary voters (with an even number sampled on telephone and cellphone) and has a margin of error at +/- 5.7 percentage points.
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