There's an interesting article in the Washington Post highlighting what the writer considers the five key races that might indicate a chance for Democrats to win the House of Representatives this fall:
www.washingtonpost.com/...
The writer, Amber Phillips, isn't necessarily trying to get Democrats' hopes up, making it perfectly clear how challenging it would be for Democrats to overcome the Republicans' current advantage in the House (Democrats need to flip 30 seats and are currently only on track to flip 7-10, according to the writer, citing political analysts, and would need this to be a “wave” election to do so. And she doesn’t even mention the Republican gerrymandering that makes it even more challenging).
The five seats that would be key, according to the writer, after polling various political pundits and sources:
-Rep. Erick Paulsen, MN-3 (Challenged by Democratic State Sen. Terri Bonoff)
-Rep. Ryan Zinke, MT-At Large (Challenged by Democratic State Education Superintendent Denise Juneau)
-Rep. Mike Bost, IL-12 (Challenged by Democratic Attorney C.J. Baricevic, who actually outraised the incumbent in fundraising during the early months of this year)
-Rep. Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (Challenged by Democratic retired Army Colonel Mike Derrick (in a district which has a heavy military population, especially in the Watertown area.))
-Rep. David Valadao, CA-21 (Unfortunately, a Democratic nominee is still pending the results of a final count of the votes from Tuesday's election)
These five seats could be a bellwether as to Democratic chances to flip the House this November, according to the article.
This makes some degree of sense to me. In the case of the NY-21 seat, for instance, Stefanik is a freshman who took back the seat for Republicans after it's former occupant, Bill Owens, took it over in an unlikely special election upset after President Obama named its previous Republican occupant as Army Secretary.
Am not an expert on things like this, but it was an interesting article.
Any thoughts?