Full disclosure. I’m neither a professional pollster nor a poli-sci major. But I can read, and count quite well to 20 with my shoes and socks off. The esteemed Floridageorge had some very interesting and informative polling data and conclusions in his DIARY uesterday. Basically, Hillary is finding her footing, she’s starting to pull away. The three most recent national polls show her up by 9, 11 and 10 points respectively. She is also leading in every battleground state except Ohio, where she’s down by a measly 1 point. She’s even opened up a nearly double digit lead in North Carolina, expanding the map, and within striking distance in NV and AZ. Her surge is also helping several Senatorial candidates. But what struck me the most was this one paragraph;
Hillary Clinton is 9 points ahead of Donald Trump regardless of whether Gary Johnson is in the race. A subsequent question makes clear there's very little wiggle room here: among voters who support a candidate, nearly all of them say their choice is firm. Bottom line: there are very few undecided voters—who will probably break pretty evenly anyway—and everyone else says their minds are solidly made up.
Look, let’s be honest. Neither one of these candidates is lighting the world on fire, not necessarily even within their own bases. But they are it, they’re the match up. The voting population has slowly come to accept this fact. And with acceptance comes resignation. The choice is what it is. What surprises me is that at least one of those candidates, one Donald J. Trump is so polarizing that he’s single handedly solidified the vote, even before the conventions, much less Labor Day. If that polling is correct, there is almost no “mushy middle” to influence.
Once the primaries are over with, there are very few opportunities for a candidate to change a lot of minds at once. One opportunity is in the debates. Think Obama’s “Please proceed Governor” beatdown of Romney in 2012. Or Joe Biden’s laughing referral of Paul Ryan’s statement as “Malarkey” in the Vice Presidential debate. Think Sarah Palin’s implosion in her 2008 debate with Biden. Think Nixon sweating like a meat loaf against Kennedy, or Pappy Bush looking at his watch. People tune in to debates, and as the old Russian adage goes, “In war a second mistake is not permitted”. Not a first one either in politics.
The second opportunity is at the conventions. Obama was launched by his mesmerizing speech from the podium in 2004. Hillary’s enthusiastic floor call to nominate Obama for the candidacy. Bill Clinton’s folksy, energizing speech in his role of the “Secretary of ‘splaining stuff”. Again, a large viewership of interested viewers can not only sway a few minds here and there, but can really cement the support of the voters they have.
All indications are that the GOP convention in Cleveland is going to be a mess. Groups like “Truckers for Trump” and Bikers for Trump” filing for rally permits alongside strongly anti Trump groups is not a recipe for civil peace. Neither is the current lineup of speakers. When the best you can do is your wife and kids, Jack Niklaus and Bobby Knight does not give the appearance of dealing from a position of strength. Nor does Ben Carson, Scott Walker and Mike Huckabee. Hell, at least it’s a little more face time for the “Police Lineup” branch of the party.
If Bernie comes out next week, as expected, and endorses Hillary, and then gives a full throated speech at the convention, the Democratic Party can hold a traditional, effective convention. They can concentrate on their platform, policies and ideas, and present a unified front moving forward. There will certainly be protests outside the arena, but you just don’t get the “vibe” for civil unrest, physical violence and property destruction that you get from the Trump protesters. If the streets outside stay loud, but peaceful and respectful, no harm no foul. Democracy in action.
If Trump comes out of the convention with anything less than a +4 bump, then it has been what he likes to call a “a lovely, expensive waste of time”. My personal feelings are screw the “bump”, the way this convention is shaping up, Trump will be lucky to not drop after the convention.
On the other hand, if the Democrats have a good convention, and Hillary comes out with a +5-6 bump, and if the polling is correct on how set in stone most voters already are, this could essentially be over by Labor Day barring a cataclysmic event. And no, I don’t have much faith in Donald’s performance in a face to face debate.
But, even if Hillary does open up a commanding lead coming out of the conventions, we can’t let up. We have to keep the pedal to the petal to maximize the positive effect on the down ballot and statewide races to maximize the damage to the GOP. But I do have to say, for this early in the race the polling numbers are very positive, and from what I can see, the GOP’s funding deficit and unity problems are not going away soon. In fact, an official Trump nomination just puts that much more pressure on down ballot candidates in the GOP.
Thanks as always for reading!