Even the most vulnerable of Senate incumbents can usually count on outspending their opponent. For instance, Democratic Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor held a $4 million to $2.76 million cash-on-hand edge over Republican Tom Cotton at this point in the last cycle; Cotton ended up beating Pryor 57-39. But Illinois Republican Sen. Mark Kirk doesn’t even have that going for him. Over the last three months, Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth outraised Kirk $2.7 million to $1 million, and she holds a wide $5.5 million to $3.1 million cash-on-hand edge.
Illinois is a solidly Democratic state in presidential cycles, and Kirk would have had a tough time winning even if he could outspend Duckworth. But to make matters worse for Kirk, national Republicans haven’t shown any real interest in spending on his behalf. Even Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, who rivals Kirk for the title of most vulnerable Republican senator in the country, is getting outside help. National Democrats haven’t invested much into this contest either, a sign that they feel good about Duckworth’s chances. There has been no public polling here in months, but Republican donors and outside groups seem to agree that Kirk’s just a bad investment this year.