Three different academic pollsters released surveys of five different Senate races on Wednesday, along with presidential numbers for each state as well. Here's a rundown of all the data:
CO-Sen: Monmouth: Michael Bennet (D-inc): 48, Darryl Glenn (R): 35 (Clinton 48-35)
IA-Sen: Marist: Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 52, Patty Judge (D): 42 (Clinton 42-39)
OH-Sen: Marist: Rob Portman (R-inc): 44, Ted Strickland (D): 44 (39-39 tie)
PA-Sen: Marist: Katie McGinty (D): 47, Pat Toomey (R-inc): 44 (Clinton 45-36)
WI-Sen: Marquette: Russ Feingold (D): 49, Ron Johnson (R-inc): 44 (Clinton 45-41)
Both Monmouth and Marist are exploring virgin territory; only Marquette has polled its race before. Last month, Feingold held a much wider 51-42 lead on Johnson, but there's no clear reason for the shift. Both sides have been advertising on TV, but neither candidate's favorability ratings have budged. The presidential race tightened as well, though, from a 42-37 lead for Hillary Clinton in June, though Marquette doesn't think FBI Director James Comey's announcement about Clinton's email practices had anything to do with it, so it's hard to say what's happened here.
Meanwhile, Democrats will be quite chuffed with McGinty's numbers in Pennsylvania, where she's trailed Toomey in every other poll. Of course, if 14 polls in a row show you behind and one shows you ahead, you shouldn't get too excited about that one new poll, but we'll have to see if this is an aberration or a sign of things to come. Over in Iowa, by contrast, Marist's results are identical to those that Monmouth released earlier this week, though earlier polls from PPP and Loras College have found a closer race.
As for Ohio, it's right in line with the polling averages, while we have little to compare to in seldom-polled Colorado, though a recent survey from Republican pollster Harper Polling put Bennet on top by just a 46-40 margin. All in all, these are generally positive numbers for Democrats, but as always, it's more important to looking at the polling aggregates than any one single poll of a race.
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