can be seen if you go play with the calculator at the Upshot blog at the New YorkTimes.
They list ten “battleground” states you can play with. I am going to ignore GA, because if Trump were to lose GA, he would certainly have already lost the electoral college.
Here are the states and the current probabilities shown, in decreasing size of electoral vote
FL 55 Clinton
PA 67 Clinton
OH 56 Clinton
NC 53 Trump
VA 75 Clinton
IA 59 Clinton
NV 67 Clinton
NM 76 Clinton
NH 51 Trump
The current percentages offered by Upshot is to give you a sense of the current lay of the land, and remember, this is before we get state polls subsequent to the Democratic National Convention.
It’s pretty simply.
If Trump were to lose FL, he can lose only ONE of IA or NV or NM or NH, otherwise he has already lost
If Trump were to lose VA & PA, he can only lose NH and still have any path — in fact, at that point he has to win every other contested state.
If he were to lose OH, he can lose three of IA, NV, NM, and NH. If he lost all four, he would lose the election.
Please note current percentages.
Please remember that Kaine, who is fluent in Spanish, was introduced in Miami.
Please remember Dem convention was in Philadelphia, and bus tour is PA and OH, and you still have the event in Scranton with Clinton & Biden, both of whom have roots there.
Please remember that most people would tell you that with Kaine on the ballot VA is almost certainly off the table for Trump.
Breathe.
Now get back to work.