Last time we checked in, we found that yes, Donald Trump got a yuuuuge convention bump in the polling of … 1.2 points! Well done, sir. Well done. But then the Democrats had their convention, so let’s see where things stand today, now that we have enough post-convention data. Using the Pollster.com national polling aggregate:
|
8/3 |
7/28 |
7/19 |
6/30 |
6/10 |
5/12 |
US |
C+5.8 |
C+1.3
|
C+2.5 |
C+7 |
C+4.6 |
C+3.6 |
Yup! That right there is a bump, alright. A big bump. Tremendous bump. Yuge! Actually, 4.5 points isn’t historically huge (Bill Clinton’s was 13 points in 1992), but gotta channel the Donnster every chance we get, right? And it’s a real bump, one that sees her numbers higher than they’ve been since early May.
Post convention, Trump is out of the high-30s and into the very low 40s, a measure of conservative consolidation. Good for him. Good luck getting the next 10 percent. And he’ll never get there.
Among the polls making up that composite? Fox News, giving Hillary Clinton a ten point lead (up from C+6 in their previous one). Funny, huh?
We’ll hopefully see a rash of state-level polling in the next couple of weeks so we can gauge just how much of this national boost is reflected in the key battlegrounds. But for now, mission accomplished, Democrats.