The latest odds snapshots from 538 are incredible. First we have the Now Cast, which is their estimate of who would win if the election were held today.
This is the highest Now Cast probability— 91.8%-- that Clinton has received ever.
Next we have the odds for election day (using their “polls only” model).
This is not just a bounce. We are surging.
Naturally, we still have three months to go, so there’s still lots to do to ensure that Clinton & Kaine get the landslide victory they deserve.
For more info about these graphs, see below.
Differences between polls-only and now-cast
The now-cast is basically the polls-only model, except that we lie to our computer and tell it the election is today.
As a result, the now-cast is very aggressive. It’s much more confident than polls-plus or polls-only; it weights recent polls more heavily and is more aggressive in calculating a trend line.
There could be some big differences around the conventions. The polls-only and polls-plus models discount polls taken just after the conventions, whereas the now-cast will work to quickly capture the convention bounce.