538 has added an “Updates” page so we can see which polls are being added to their models. This allows all of us to see all the data, including the stuff that doesn’t necessarily draw it’s own diary. For example, no one is writing about Harper Polling coming in with Trump +13 in Kentucky that I’ve noticed.
Today’s news thus far is:
- National: Clinton +6, Clinton +5, Clinton +4, Clinton +1.
- PA: Clinton +11.
- FL: Clinton +4.
- KY: Trump +13
- NH: Clinton +15
- MI: Clinton +9.
“Now-cast” (most reactive of their 3 models): Clinton 49% of the national vote, ~363 ECV.
As the Trump slump continues, next on our pickup parade ought to be AZ (aggregate currently has R+1.1) and GA (+2.1). Right now, Texas (R+6.1) is closer than Colorado (D+6.9).
EDIT:
I see on Twitter that NBC / Marist has Clinton +15 nationwide. Yes, +15. Presumably an outlier (their last one was C+3) but still, that’s gonna move the models.