There’s a new independent candidate for President in 2016, but can he get on the ballot in time to make a difference?. Evan McMullin is a former CIA officer and a fervent anti-Trump Republican. He declared his candidacy today–August 8, 2016. If he wants to mount a serious challenge to Trump, he’s got a big uphill climb.
If all he’s interested in, as some have speculated, is stopping Trump in a few states-–such as McMullin’s home state of Utah, and a few others–-he’s got a better shot. As you’ll see in the chart I’ve created below, Utah’s ballot access rules give him a week–the deadline is August 15–to gather 1,000 signatures. [Note that McMullin is Mormon, and that there’s a huge Mormon vote in Utah–as well as in Nevada and Colorado. He’s still got a couple of days left in Colorado, but Nevada’s deadline has already passed.]
McMullin also has a bit of lead time in several other states. But to be the spoiler in those states, he’ll have to get busy--fast. A few examples from other Western states that he might consider:
Arizona: Requires 20,000+ valid signatures from registered voters, county-by-county. Deadline is September 9, 2016.
Colorado: Requires 5,000 valid signatures from registered voters. Deadline is August 10, 2016.
Idaho: Requires signatures of at least 1,000 qualified voters. Deadline is August 25, 2016.
Wyoming: Requires signatures equaling at least 2% of the total number of votes cast for U.S. Representative in the most recent general election. $200 filing fee. Deadline is August 29, 2016.
How to get on the ballot as an independent, when you have more time
At this stage of the 2016 election, it’s too late to get on the ballot in all 50 states. If it were earlier in the election cycle, that might be possible. Doing that, though, would take a large on-the-ground organization. The first hurdle—and it’s a big one—would be to get your name on the ballot in all fifty states. Doing that would take a large on-the-ground organization, because there is no central place where an independent, a third-party candidate, or even a Republican or Democrat can just fill out a form to get his/her name on the ballot. You have to do it state by state. And ballot access laws—the rules that govern how one gets on the ballot—vary widely from state to state.
It’s also important to note that state laws governing ballot access are skewed toward the established parties—Republicans and Democrats. Third-party candidates or independents not affiliated with a party face additional burdens not required of R’s and D’s. According to Wikipedia, these additional hurdles usually come in the form of “difficult, signature-gathering nominating petition drives” not required of major-party candidates.
Ballotpedia offers a one-page-per-state summary of the rules candidates must follow to get their names on the ballot. I’ve condensed the information into a chart HERE, to demonstrate the labyrinth of requirements for candidates outside the two major parties. [This chart is not intended to be an official guide for candidates. Please don’t sue me if I’ve got something wrong. Consult your local Secretary of State for the official nitty gritty. End of disclaimer.]
For me, the takeaway from this chart is that non-mainstream presidential candidates had better get a detail-oriented coordinator in every state ASAP, and get some signature-gatherers on board right away, too. As with just about all state-controlled government processes in the US [see: Medicaid], the whims of state legislatures have created a hodgepodge of practices and eligibility requirements. There’s very little state-to-state consistency. And down there in the weeds, there are undoubtedly lots of picky regulations just waiting for a partisan bureaucrat to use to disqualify signatures and candidates. [And if you don’t believe that election regulations have become a partisan sport, you haven’t been keeping up with the latest voter suppression tactics instituted in many states.]
One small advantage for independent candidates…
One other takeaway from this chart: States appear to have granted one concession to off-brand candidates—an extended deadline. You’ll see that the filing deadline for independents and third-parties fall after most states’ primaries and caucuses. That schedule makes it possible for someone like Michael Bloomberg to wait in the wings a bit longer, until the dust has settled from the major parties’ primaries and caucuses, and to assess his chances of jumping in. But there’s still a lot of pressure: Getting enough signatures—valid signatures that will survive the challenge of being checked, one-by-one—can be tricky and frustrating.
But it can be done. [See: Teddy Roosevelt 1912, Ross Perot 1992, and Ralph Nader 2000]
Here's the chart, again. It’s long, but we’re a big country, with a lot of rules. [Sorry, you’ll have to link to it. I can’t figure out an efficient way to recreate it here on DKOS. Technical advice welcome.]
[Note: This is an update of one of my previous posts—adapted for today’s announcement by Evan McMullin.]