We have several new Senate polls in our hands, from a trio of pollsters. Here are the numbers, along with trendlines from the most recent prior poll and the presidential results in each state:
IA-Sen: Marist: Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 52, Patty Judge (D): 42 (July: 52-42 Grassley) (35-35 Clinton-Trump tie)
NC-Sen: PPP (D): Richard Burr (R-inc): 41, Deborah Ross (D): 37, Sean Haugh (Lib): 5 (June: 40-37-5 Burr) (43-41 Clinton)
OH-Sen: Marist: Rob Portman (R-inc): 48, Ted Strickland (D): 43 (July: 44-44 tie) (39-35 Clinton)
PA-Sen: Marist: Katie McGinty (D): 48, Pat Toomey (R-inc): 44 (July: 47-44 McGinty) (45-36 Clinton)
WI-Sen: Marquette: Russ Feingold (D): 50, Ron Johnson (R-inc): 39, Phil Anderson (Lib): 7 (July: 46-40-7 Feingold) (47-37 Clinton)
Note that Marist tested registered voters while both PPP and Marquette looked at likely voters. But there's something very interesting going on when comparing voter screens. Marquette also provided data on what registered voters think, and they're slightly more favorable for Republicans: Feingold leads 47-38, while Clinton's up 42-33. By the same token, Marist offered breakdowns for respondents who say they'll "definitely" vote in November. This group was more bullish for Democrats: Among them, Grassley's up just 48-47 and Portman 47-43, while McGinty's lead stretches to 51-44. Clinton's margins are also wider in every case.
This is very atypical. Usually, the tighter a pollster screens, the better the numbers look for Republicans, simply because Republican voters are historically more likely to vote. But both Marist and Marquette see the opposite happening. That suggests there's an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans, possibly because Republicans are particularly depressed about Donald Trump, or because Democrats are particularly scared of him, or both. If this proves to be a nationwide phenomenon that continues through Election Day, it'll be a rough experience for the GOP.