The press tries really hard to create a horse race. They are invested in the idea that the presidential race becomes close, outcome uncertain. They are trying with all their might to make it so. They prop up Trump’s “pivot”, they give him high marks for the Play-Doh photo-op when they should dig deeper:
Donald Trump’s $100,000 “donation” to Louisiana flood victims went to a local anti-gay hate group
They have no use for any talk about the Putin-Trump connection, which is strong and obvious, instead they talk and write incessantly about the “Clinton Foundation” and “Emails”, both weak attack points, and not obvious at all. A transparent effort to try to bring the race closer, bring Hillary’s numbers down while helping Trump along the way.
Parity and equivalency, the press’ daily bread.
Then reality hits like a cold shower, to wash it all away. It’s not meant to be. This election is decided and controlled by the PEOPLE. Not writers and talking heads. Not pundits and syndicated columnists. The PEOPLE. It first came from the people in form of a poll that showed us that 63% of the American people don’t want to hear about Emails anymore. Enough already.
Monmouth Poll, August 8, 2016:
“ 63% say they are tired of hearing about the email issue while just 34% say the media should continue to cover it. ”
But, the media does not listen. Emails it is. The server emails. Emails from the foundation.
So, now we are seeing how the people are reacting to all of it. And, it is great news for us, bad news for them. It does not look like the media types are getting their way, it does not look like this election will be a close horse race, a nail biter on election day. Great polls like these last 5, 6 we’ve seen back to back show why that is.
Let’s dissect them:
1. Ispos/Reuters national poll
Hillary 45% — Trump 33%
Clinton leads Trump by 12 points in Reuters/Ipsos poll
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican rival Donald Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, her strongest showing this month, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Tuesday.
The Aug. 18-22 poll showed that 45 percent of voters supported Clinton, while 33 percent backed Trump ahead of the Nov. 8 election.
Hillary’s strongest showing this month, and the month is almost over.
During the latest polling, Clinton faced renewed scrutiny about her handling of classified emails while serving as secretary of state from 2009 to 2013, and Trump's campaign chief, Paul Manafort, resigned after a reshuffle of the candidate's campaign leadership team.
That media concocted “renewed scrutiny” of her emails did nothing to deter folks from Hillary, quite the opposite. Her best polling of the month so far.
2. Florida poll +14%
Hillary 52% — Trump 38%
Survey: Florida Looks Like It Will Support Clinton for President
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has a 14-point polling lead over GOP candidate Donald Trump among Florida’s likely voters, according to a new survey by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute.
The survey was conducted online from August 14 to 18 among 1,500 Florida adults, including 1,380 who said they will likely vote in the November election. When asked which presidential candidate they would support, or would lean toward supporting, if the election was the same day that they took the survey, respondents answered in these proportions:
Candidate |
Combined percent of supporters and those leaning toward support |
Democrat Hillary Clinton |
51.7% (decided supporters = 48.3%) |
Republican Donald Trump |
37.7 % (decided supporters = 33.8%) |
Libertarian Gary Johnson |
8.3 % (decided supporters = 6.4%) |
Green Party candidate Jill Stein |
2.4 % (decided supporters = 1.6%)
|
This comes on the heels of the Monmouth poll from last week that showed Hillary’s lead in Florida at 9%.
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Saint Leo University Polling Institute Director Frank Orlando said the results show that Clinton’s lead appears “very secure” in Florida.
...
“The opportunities for Donald Trump to make up that distance are shrinking,” observed Orlando, who also teaches political science at Saint Leo University. “Absent an unprecedented movement toward Trump as a result of the debates, or more likely, an external shock to the system, she can safely put Florida in her column,” Orlando said.
If Florida is indeed in Hillary’s column, the election is effectively over, since Virginia and Colorado are both now safely in Hillary’s column as well.
- Women favor Clinton by an almost 2-to-1 margin, with Clinton preferred by 58.3 percent of respondents compared to 30.6 percent for Trump.
- Trump is appealing to only 23 percent of the Hispanics in the survey; 70 percent support Clinton.
- African-American support for Clinton is more than 90 percent.
- Trump attracted more support than Clinton among white voters, at 50.6 percent to 36.9 percent for Clinton; still, Orlando predicted that the margin is not large enough to offset Trump’s “massive deficit among minorities.”
3. Virginia Poll +16%
Hillary 48% — Trump 32%
Poll: Clinton up big on Trump in Virginia
Hillary Clinton has a big lead over Donald Trump in Virginia, according to a new poll released Tuesday, which shows the Democratic nominee with a 16-point advantage in the state.
The Roanoke College poll found
Clinton leading Trump 48% to 32% among likely Virginia voters in a four-way race. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 8% support, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein is backed by 3%.
In a two-way matchup, Clinton's lead extends to 19 points (55%-36%).
Virginia is safe for Hillary, to say the least.
Clinton has improved her standing among Democrats since May (91% support her now compared to 78% in May), and Trump's support among Republicans has declined slightly from 80 percent in May to 78 percent in August. Clinton holds strong leads among both political Independents (43%-25%) and self-described moderates (57%-22%). About half (49%) of Clinton supporters said their vote was more of a vote for her than against Trump (38%), while Trump backers were more likely to say their vote is one against Clinton (49%) rather than for him (35%).
Clinton's favorable ratings, though not good, have improved from May (39% favorable; 45% unfavorable compared to 35% and 50% in May), while Trump's numbers are very poor and marginally worse than in May (23% favorable; 63% unfavorable down from 23% and 56%).
Hillary’s fav/unfav numbers are 39% to 45%, tantalizingly close to parity (it takes a 3% flip to get to parity.) Trump is at 23% fav and 63% unfav, he is 40% underwater.
Crosstabs available here:
Crosstabs
4. Missouri poll TIED
Trump 44% — Hillary 43%
Poll Puts Hillary Clinton Neck-and-Neck With Donald Trump in Missouri
Hillary Clinton has a chance to turn Missouri blue in November, according to a new poll that shows the Democratic presidential nominee virtually deadlocked with Donald J. Trump in a state that Republicans carried easily four years ago.
A survey from Monmouth University found that 44 percent of likely voters supported Mr. Trump and 43 percent backed Mrs. Clinton. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s nominee, who barely registered in Missouri when he ran in 2012, received support from 8 percent.
A tie for Hillary in Missouri, she can win the state with a good ground operation there. Missouri is in play, a state Romney won by nearly 10% in 2012.
From Monmouth:
Clinton leads by 65 points among black, Hispanic, and Asian voters (78% to 13%), while Trump leads by 13 points among white voters (50% to 37%). In 2012, Barack Obama won non-white voters by 73 points, while Mitt Romney took the white vote by a commanding 33 points. Trump is currently doing better among white women (54% to 36%) in Missouri than he is among white men (45% to 37%). This gender gap is the opposite of what the Monmouth University Poll has been finding among white voters in other states as well as its national polls where Trump has been doing better with men than women.
All crosstabs here:
Crosstabs
5. South Carolina poll TIED
Hillary 39% — Trump 39%
Clinton-Trump tied in SC
The poll was debuted on the "Rachel Maddow Show" on Tuesday night. Maddow, a liberal TV personality, said that while the poll was commissioned by Democrats and that the Feldman Group was a "Democratic polling firm," the results were "legit."
Clinton leads among voters under age 45 by 9 percentage points, while Trump leads Clinton among white independent voters by a 37-point margin -- 59 percent to 22 percent. Clinton has a significant lead among African-American voters, receiving 91 percent of their support.
S.C. Democratic Party Chairman Jaime Harrison appeared on the "Rachel Maddow Show" on Tuesday night to announce the poll's findings.
"The future is bright for Democrats in South Carolina," Harrison said.
SC is tight. This comes on the heels of two polls showing a very close race. Gravis, which has a strong GOP lean, showed Trump leading by only 4% in this state on August 19, and the week before that PPP had the race even closer, a virtual tie. Let’s face the truth here, South Carolina is in play, as crazy as that sounds.
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In a four-way matchup with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Trump and Clinton each have 39 percent.
6. Tangibles
Hillary leads Trump on ALL important issues
Huffpollster:
Voters Don’t Trust Donald Trump On Any Of These Major Issues
”He’s the most distrusted Republican candidate in recent history when it comes to policy.”
More voters trust Hillary Clinton than Donald Trump on nearly every key issue ― a feat not achieved by any candidate in recent elections, according to polling data aggregated by The Huffington Post.
Trump trails Clinton in voter trust on each of the issues that typically rank highest in people’s minds when evaluating a presidential candidate ― the economy, immigration, terrorism, national security, foreign policy, social issues and criminal justice, according to a HuffPost aggregation of polling data. Clinton even leads on the topics that Republicans have historically been perceived as better-equipped to handle.
HuffPost looked at “trust” questions from all publicly available polls between July and August that met the criteria for HuffPost Pollster. The numbers reported are the averages of these polls.
These are issues based poll answers across an aggregate of major polls. The result here is “unprecedented in the 21st century”, according to Huffington’s pollster. In 2008 McCain led, sometimes very strongly, in 3 of these 6 issues. In 2000 George W. Bush also won on 3 of these 6 issues.
Methodology:
Polling results included all nationwide polls that would be included in our HuffPost Pollster charts conducted between July through September over the past four election cycles. The data from all polling sources was averaged per voting issue. Approved pollsters included in the aggregation include Pew Research Center, ABC News/Washington Post, Bloomberg, McClatchy/Marist, NBC/WSJ, CNN/ORC, CBS/NYT, Newsweek, FOX, USA Today/Gallup, AP-GfK Roper Public Affairs, LA Times/Bloomberg, Time and Quinnipiac.
Trump’s favorable numbers are terrible
Unlike Hillary, whose fav/unfav numbers are in workable territory where a flip of 6%, 7% of people would put her into positive territory, Trump’s favorable numbers are truly bad. Trump is almost 30% in the hole, his unfavorables are 63.1%, his favorables only 34.6%. And, looking at the graph, Trump’s unfavorable numbers are still on the rise.
We have a press that is trying to make this into a horse race, but we have the American people who don’t want to go along with that strategy, who give Hillary high marks on ALL the important issues, who give Trump low marks on the same vital issues, who give Trump very low favorable ratings, and who are making states like Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia and Arizona potential pickups for Democrats this year, while turning Virginia, Colorado, Florida into states where it would be almost a massive miracle if Trump were to win any of them.
The press does not control this election, does not guide it. PEOPLE do. And the PEOPLE have had it with Trump, the Republican party, the press trying to create dissension and parity. We are voters, and we will turn out for a historic election, we will work hard to GOTV, so that the polls we are seeing are actually under counting the real state of the race in many states and nationally.