Here's a quick survival guide until November 8th:
- The media likes a "close race" narrative because it means higher ratings.
- The underdog likes a "close race" narrative because it keeps supporters engaged and the money flowing.
- The frontrunner likes a "close race" narrative for the exact same reason as the underdog (in fact, you may have just received an email from Hillary with the subject "Fwd: Breaking: Trump +2").
The loser in this scenario? Our nation's collective sanity for the next two months. Sad!
But as an independent blogger, I'm in a position to give you the truth as I see it...and here it is: Some national polls (Fox News and most notably CNN) have shown a Trump surge recently, while others (NBC/SurveyMonkey, USA Today/Suffolk, PPP and Monmouth) have shown it pretty steady. Here's how it looks since August 1st in chart form:
A slightly-tightened race with Clinton hanging onto about a 5-point lead sounds just about right.
But, again, national polls don't pick presidents...swing states do. And on that front, it seems like the race has barely changed at all this week.
The media has focused almost exclusively on Trump while pushing bogus non-scandals involving the Clinton Foundation, emails and even Anthony Weiner over the last few weeks, and the polls seem to be picking that up right now. However, there are hints that the narrative may be changing back in Hillary's favor this week thanks to her press conferences and Donald's emerging pay-to-play scandals. NBC's "Commander-in-Chief Forum" on Wednesday night (which is essentially a debate warm-up) may have an effect too.
Whatever the case, Clinton is still leading with nine weeks to go...but it's far from a sure thing. So don't be scared, be determined. Don't be panicky, be a volunteer. And don't be complacent, make a donation to the Hillary Victory Fund.
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Originally posted at HillaryHQ.com