In light of all the panic about Democrats lacking Enthusiasm, it’s helpful to take a trip down memory lane...
Flashback to 2012 -
US News: “Enthusiasm Gap Means Mitt Romney Could Blow Out President Obama”
Chuck Todd: The enthusiasm gap is real — and a real problem for Obama
Forbes: “Voter Enthusiasm Gap The Real Challenge To Obama Re-Election”
In 2008, 72 percent of voters under 30 indicated they were extremely interested in the election, which is what it took to deliver roughly 52 percent of the registered voters in this demographic to the polls on election day. Recent polls suggest that enthusiasm for the election in this demographic is down a full twenty percent this year raising some very clear warning flags suggesting that the youth vote is not going to be there for Obama in sufficient numbers to make a difference.
There is also reason for concern in another of the President’s strongest voting blocks—the Hispanic community.
While the spread of support between Obama and Romney is the Hispanic community has skewed heavily toward the President, polls show that only fifty-nine percent of this group is enthusiastic about the race, a drop of eighteen percent from the 2008 election. While the President may have the support of seventy percent of the Hispanic community, it doesn’t do him much good if they fail to show up and vote...
It turns out that Youth voter turnout DID decline in 2012 from 2008 but ultimately, President Obama still won re-election with a comfortable margin in the Electoral College
Youth turnout among those ages 18-24 dropped 7.3 percentage points from 2008 to 2012, to 41.2%. This contravenes a CIRCLE report that preliminary turnout in 2012 was closer to 50%. [These declines have undone a lot of the gains in youth turnout in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.]
If one breaks it down by racial origin, among all racial groups, voting rates for 18-24 year olds were down from 2008 to 2012, declining by 7.4% for non-Hispanic whites, 4.6% for Hispanics and 6.7% for blacks. This reverses patterns seen in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections where the biggest voting increases came from 18-24 year olds. For example, from 2004 to 2008, Hispanic 18-24 year olds and black 18-24 year olds increased their voting rates by 5.8% and 8.3% respectively...
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The lesson here is:
- The Enthusiasm Gap can be overcome
- The youth vote is still important
- Hillary CAN win even if these voters don’t match 2008 levels of passion about the election