The good news is that Hillary won the debate. The really good news is that there will be lasting consequences. Too much attention is being focused on the first part, of course. Everyone wants to know who won. Focus groups and polls can tell us that. But the bounce from the first debate is often ephemeral. Remember Mitt Romney won the first debate in 2012, and his numbers went up by four percent. But that went away soon enough.
Most important is the matter of lasting consequences. Were there any defining moments or mistakes that may shape the campaign or change the dynamics? Absolutely yes. And that’s what’s really important about what happened last night.
First, and still unremarked, is that the fact that it was Hillary who scored big in the final half hour of a 90 minute debate. It was Trump who had the sinus problems. It was Trump who was leaning on the podium for support. In the stretch, she was standing straight and delivering the best punches and counterpunches. Oh, and did I mention she did it in heels? So much for the nonsense that she is suffering from some horrible, mysterious disease. That game is over.
But the real game changer was when Trump outsmarted himself and may have outed himself as a tax evader who pays no federal taxes. This historic exchange changed the dynamics of the campaign, and Trump put himself in an untenable position:
HRC: Maybe he doesn’t want the American people, all of you watching tonight, that he’s paid nothing in federal taxes. Because the only years that anybody’s ever seen were a couple of years where he had to turn them over to state authorities when he was trying to get a casino license and they showed he didn’t pay any federal income tax, so....
TRUMP: That makes me smart.....
HRC: ....if we say zero, that means zero for troops, zero for vets, zero for schools or health and I say probably he’s not all that enthusiastic about having the rest of our country see what the real reasons are because it must be something really important, even terrible that he’s trying to hide.
That exchange will run until the cows come home. Hillary will make sure of that. And the only way Trump can stop the bleeding would be to release his tax returns, which would likely create a whole new crisis for his campaign.
I don’t think it will play well among the American public that this guy is bragging about paying no taxes at all. But maybe that’s just me. I guess he’s gotta put up or shut up.
I spent four decades in the news business and covered every Presidential campaign from 1972 to 2008. When I saw that exchange last night, I thought back to 1976, when I was working in Cleveland and Gerald Ford made that comment that there was no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. I told everyone in the newsroom that night that this would cost Ford Ohio — and maybe the election. Carter won Ohio by 11,000 votes out of four million cast. Ford lost that election by losing Cleveland’s big ethnic vote. Then, I thought back to 1988, when Michael Dukakis gave Bernie Shaw that dreadful response to the capital punishment question. It defined him and gave credence to the Willie Horton — soft on crime charges. He was dead meat from then on.
Last night, Donald Trump seemed to confirm that he’s paid no federal income taxes and he’s smarter than the rest of us. Those four words, “that makes me smart,” painted him into a corner. He outsmarted himself. The only way out will be to release his returns.
The campaign is not over. Not by a long shot. But the dynamics have changed dramatically in Hillary’s favor. It’s put up or shut up time for the Donald.