The intelligence community is pretty darned sure that Russia is behind the hacks on the Democratic National Committee and into some state elections operations.
The question, debated at multiple meetings at the White House, is how aggressively to respond to the Russian operation. Publicly naming and shaming the Russians and describing what the intelligence community knows about their activities would help Americans understand and respond prudently to any disruptions that might take place between now and the close of the polls. Senior Justice Department officials have argued in favor of calling out the Russians, and that position has been echoed forcefully outside of government by lawmakers and former top national-security officials from both political parties.
Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. The President and several of his closest national-security advisers are concerned about the danger of a confrontation in the new and ungoverned world of cyberspace, and they argue that while the U.S. has powerful offensive and defensive capabilities there, an escalating confrontation carries significant risks. National Security Council officials warn that our critical infrastructure–including the electricity grid, transportation sector and energy networks–is vulnerable to first strikes; others say attacks on private companies, stock exchanges and the media could affect the economy. Senior intelligence officials even worry about Russia exposing U.S. espionage operations in retaliation. And while U.S. officials have “high confidence” that Russia is behind what they describe as a major influence operation, senior U.S. officials tell TIME, their evidence would not yet stand up in court.
So intelligence has "high confidence" that it's Russia. Or, you know, it could be Donald Trump's 400-pound hacker sitting on his bed. Or China. Or maybe even Donald Trump's 10-year-old son, Barron, though that part is kind of hazy, since maybe the kid is supposed to be fighting off the hackers.
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On a serious note, though, here's what official Washington is worried about:
It is very unlikely the Russians could sway the actual vote count, because our election infrastructure is decentralized and voting machines are not accessible from the Internet. But they can sow disruption and instability up to, and on, Election Day, more than a dozen senior U.S. officials tell TIME, undermining faith in the result and in democracy itself.
Trump is doing everything in his power now to convince his supporters that the election is going to be rigged, and it's working with about half of them. All those crazy conspiracy theories he suggests in his rallies—from being given a faulty mic at the debate to Google suppressing bad Hillary news—contribute to the narrative that he's being conspired against. He's laying extensive groundwork to make the claim, when he loses, that Hillary fixed it, that the election will be illegitimate.
Which is just what the intelligence community thinks Russia might be up to—eroding confidence in the election, in our democratic process, in a Clinton presidency. Coincidentally, all the things that Trump is trying to achieve. Does it mean Trump is in Putin's pocket? Of course not, which is not to say he wouldn't be happy to be there. Whether or not Russia has anything to do with it, Trump has spent the whole of Barack Obama's presidency devoted to his birther cause and making Obama illegitimate. He's intent on doing the same to Hillary Clinton.