A new poll just came out, from the Wall Street Journal (raw data here or here) The poll was conducted this past weekend, October 8-9, the weekend following Trump’s sexual assault recordings, and previous to his second debate. It is the first poll that looks in detail at the effect of the recording on public attitudes toward the candidates.
Salient points:
- 41% found the tape completely unacceptable. 31% found it (I paraphrase) excusable, and 8% ‘other’. (20% haven’t heard of the tape or don’t know.)
- 42% agree (strongly or not so strongly) that Trump has apologized, and that the tape should not be an issue in the campaign.
- 29% had a very positive or somewhat positive opinion of Trump, compared to 28% from the same poll conducted in mid-September, when Clinton was at near her ebb. 63% had a negative opinion, compared with 61% in September. 8% had a neutral opinion (11% in September).
- Clinton’s numbers have improved by a few points since September.
I can only read this as Trump hitting rock bottom. Some 40% of the population will vote for him no matter what, assuming the demography is correct. There’s no peeling off any more of this population. At the end of the Watergate scandal, only 24% of Americans wanted Nixon to stay on.
Allowing for third party candidates, Clinton’s popular vote margin could get as high as 10%, if the waverers all went to her. I would be perfectly pleased with that.