No, it’s not going to be a landslide.
There has been much recent talk about Hillary Clinton winning the election in a landslide of epic proportions given the recently released tapes of Donald Trump’s sexually assaultive language and his loss of mainstream Republican support. But it ain’t gonna happen. Trump will lose - yes - but he will win 20+ states. And that is what is so disturbing about this election cycle. It is scary.
Multiple pollsters and pundits have talked about the rigidity of the electoral college map since the 2000 election. 40 states plus DC have voted Democratic or Republican in all four elections - often by ridiculous margins. Only 10 states have voted for both Dem and GOP presidential candidates - the famous “swing” states. If Clinton wins all of these, she will reproduce the map of Obama’s 2008 victory.
www.centerforpolitics.org/...
It is unlikely that Clinton will pull in many, if any, of the red states. Her best chances are with Arizona and Georgia which went GOP by 9% and 8% in 2012. Indiana is less likely, even though it was barely in Obama’s column in 2008. In 2012, it went GOP by 10% and its demographics and rust belt economy favor Trump. Recent polling for all three states show Clinton at -1% in Arizona, -5% in Georgia, and -8% in Indiana. Obama won by 4% in 2012. If Clinton wins by 10% in 2016, she would likely take Arizona, might win Georgia, but would likely lose Indiana.
www.realclearpolitics.com/...
And Texas - sweet Texas. To turn Texas blue is every Kossacks dream, eh? Right now Clinton is -7%. As suggested above, a 10% national win for Clinton would probably not be enough for flip Texas. Perhaps the key demographic analysis of the Texas electorate is what percentage of voters are firm. If 6% of the national electorate is moveable, but only 3% in Texas, then there is even less chance of flipping Texas. I tend to believe the latter. Still, there are important state and local races for Dems to pick up this election cycle in Texas. And Texas will, eventually, turn blue.
What breaks my heart is that 20+ states will end up voting for Donald Trump this November. Mostly states in the South, the Great Plains, and the interior West - isolated states, struggling states, poor states. How 60% of voters can vote for Trump - yes, Trump will get 60% in some states - is beyond me. I live in one of those states, Wyoming.
It speaks of a nearly insurmountable cultural divide. Of a totally different cultural reality. And it is scary. Those of you who live in Boston or Seattle may not hear it, but I do. Every day. Wishing to see Obama assassinated. Hillary nutcrackers. Openly racist language against African Americans, Hispanics, and Muslims. I have family roots in 1960s Alabama and it is just as bad - or worse.
It is almost certain that Hillary Clinton will win the election come November, but it will not be a landslide. It will not be a landslide because this country is so divided between those who wish to see an inclusive and positive future for all and those who seethe with resentment and hate. And it is scary.