and that margin is in the 4-way. In the head-to-head Clinton leads 48.1-37.6 (+10.5)
The details of the poll can be seen here
Demographics of the poll
M 48.2 F 51.8 possibly a bit heavy on male
White 91.3, Black 4.8, Latino 0.8, Asian 1.7 definitely overly white sample — using Quick Facts for Ohio from the Census Bureau the population as a whole was 82.7, 12.7, 3.1, 2.1 in order (although that 3.1 for Latino does include non-citizens).
The poll was taken AFTER the debate, on Monday & Tues, these are all likely voters, and 58% of the sample say they watched the debate.
(I will give a breakout of education when I provide those cross-tabs).
As a side note, Portman leads Strickland 49.6-34.2.
Note who wins % of party id:
candidate Dems Reps Indep
Clinton 87.8 11.2 45.5
Trump 7.5 72.2 34.7
NOTE Clinton doing better with Ds than Trump with Rs by a signif difference as well as winning Independents
On gender in four-way Clinton wins Males, 41.1-38.6, Females 44.3-38.7
Clinton wins all age groups except those over 65
What was very interesting is how it broke by education, Clinton numbers first:
Less than HS (7.8% of sample) 42.9-14.3
HS/GED (13.5) 39.3-44.2
Some college (17.3) 32.8-44.1
2 year degree (12.4) 30.8-42.5
4 year degree (33.6) 48.0-30.3
grad. degree (22.5) 52.3-29.2
Referring again to the Quick Facts, the percent of population >25 with a college degree or more was only 25.6%. Even granted that those with more education are more likely to vote, this sample seems skewed educational in favor of voters likely to vote for Clinton.
My observations — I am less concerned by the top lines and by the demographic makeups that constitute that top line than I am with what I see within demographics, although I acknowledge some impact. Thus the fact that Clinton is winning men overall may well be an artifact of the sample being too heavy on highly educated, and thus favoring Clinton
What I found most interesting is that those with the least education, less than high school, voted for Clinton. My guess is that is going to be more heavily people of color, but I don’t know,
I suppose this poll will tilt OH more heavily blue in the various models.
I would not consider this to be an accurate representation of the state of affairs in OH right now, primarily because of the distribution by education being disproportionally towards the more educated end of the scale.
I would believe Clinton is ahead, but I would have a hard time believing it is by 9 points in a 4-way.