Not sure if anyone posted on this remarkable story about the undue influence of a single African-American voter who supports Trump. The story begins with …
“There is a 19-year-old black man in Illinois who has no idea of the role he is playing in this election.”
www.nytimes.com/…
Alone, he has been enough to put Mr. Trump in double digits of support among black voters. He can improve Mr. Trump’s margin by 1 point in the survey, even though he is one of around 3,000 panelists.
He is also the reason Mrs. Clinton took the lead in the U.S.C./LAT poll for the first time in a month on Wednesday. The poll includes only the last seven days of respondents, and he hasn’t taken the poll since Oct. 4. Mrs. Clinton surged once he was out of the sample for the first time in several weeks.
There is a risk in a poll trying to get too specific and fine-grained in the groups that it breaks out. And this may largely explain why the USC / LA Times Poll is consistently an outlier. They are forced to include many more weights than the typical poll because they have chosen to include more, smaller categories of voters … like 18-to-21-year-old African-American men. This introduces a lot more risk into their poll. Enter one 19-year-old black man from Illinois …